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In 2026, the market's absolute mainstream expectation is that the Fed will not cut rates for the entire year.
The probability of zero rate cuts (0bp) for the full year is 80%, with odds of only 1.25x; the blue curve has been climbing unilaterally since late March, and by the end of the year it firmly holds the top position among the three curves. The core consensus among capital is that the Fed will maintain high interest rates throughout the year, making the possibility of rate cuts extremely low.