As of June 26, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $59,600**, having officially broken below the **$60,000 psychological level, with violent 24-hour fluctuations, once hitting around $58,000. The market is currently in a state of extreme panic (fear index 12), with a clear bearish trend.

🎯 Core Price Range

· First Support (Life-or-Death Line): $58,000 - $58,900. Last night's low. If it breaks below with volume, the downside space will open.
· Next Strong Support: $55,000**, and deeper to **$52,000 - $54,000.
· Short-term Resistance (Bearish Defense Zone): $60,000 - $60,300 (original support turned strong resistance).
· Bullish Lifeline: $62,800 - $64,200. Only a volume-driven recovery above this level can break the bearish structure.

📊 Two Scenario Trading Strategies

1. Trend-Following Short (Higher Success Rate): If the price rebounds to around $60,000 - $60,300 and fails to break through under pressure, consider entering a short position. Target $58,000; if it breaks, target $55,000.
2. Counter-Trend Bounce (High Risk): Only when the price shows a clear volume-stabilization signal around $58,000**, **aggressive short-term experts** can **lightly** attempt a quick in-and-out, targeting $60,000. Stop-loss must be strictly set below $57,500**.

⚠️ Core Risks and Background

· Macro and Fund Flows: The expectation of Fed rate hikes is suppressing risk assets. Spot ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks (cumulatively over $5.9 billion), with key buying power continuously withdrawn.
· Leverage Crisis (Biggest Risk): The highly leveraged entity Strategy (formerly MSTR) faces the risk of forced liquidation, and its selling pressure is transmitted through the market, likened by some KOLs to a potential repeat of the "Luna incident."
· Options Expiry: Approximately $10 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire today, and market makers' hedging behavior may exacerbate short-term violent fluctuations.
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