Old hands finally caught a breather: ETH bounced back to 1579, but BTC is still struggling below 60,000!

BTC was dumped from 65k all the way to 58k; current price is 59,771. If 60,000 breaks, then it’s broken.
ETH dropped from 1660 to 1512; current price is 1579. It finally bounced 0.63%, reclaiming above MA5 and MA10.
Old hands with a cigarette: “A little bounce and you’re this happy? That’s all there is to the joy of greenhorns.”

📉 Macro “valuation wipeout”: Core PCE hits a three-year high, and rate-hike expectations flip across the board

The US core PCE year-over-year growth rate rises to 4.1%, the highest since 2021. The Federal Reserve’s June FOMC dot plot shows that half of officials expect at least one rate hike from 2026 onward, and the PCE inflation forecast is revised up to 3.6%. The market has fully priced in 25bp hikes in both September and December, with the probability as high as 89%.

Fed Chair Walsh’s debut is clearly hawkish, stressing that “restoring price stability is the most important task at present,” and expectations for rate cuts are completely dashed. The US dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields remain elevated, and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Bitcoin surges.

📊 Capital “great retreat”: ETFs keep bleeding; options expiry triggers a liquidation wave

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for the seventh consecutive week. This week’s outflows reach $1.35 billion. Yesterday’s single-day net outflow was $696 million, marking the sixth consecutive day of net outflows.

Roughly $10 billion worth of Bitcoin quarterly options expire today, accounting for 37% of all open interest. A large number of call options below 60k are now worthless paper, and shorts have strong incentives to cap prices ahead of expiry.

🎯 ETH technicals: Bounce or reversal?

ETH is at 1579. Resistance overhead sits at 1600 and 1620, while support below is at 1550 and 1512. The short-term rebound is more driven by short covering layered on technical support, which doesn’t mean a trend reversal. BTC is unstable, and ETH can’t stand apart on its own.

Old hands’ warning: If BTC breaks 60,000, then look for 58,000 and 55,000 below. If you want to buy the dip, wait for price to stabilize on increasing volume. Now? Keep your hands off—don’t call a bottom in a downtrend; let the bullets fly for a bit.

#BTC #ETH #BTC下探60000美元关键关口 $ETH ‌$BTC ‌
---

Personal views only, for reference; not investment advice. There are risks in the market, so trade with caution.