#广场预测世界杯赢40000U

South Korea's team suffers a "hat-trick of match-fixing"? Probability of advancing plummets

A hot post on the forum has been upvoted hundreds of thousands of times: "This is not the first time, nor will it be the last." A short sentence brought out the frustration of Korean fans over the past two decades.

South Korea's ranking for advancing dropped from 4th yesterday to 6th in one day, and this completely exploded on the afternoon of June 26. After the 0-0 draw between Australia and Paraguay, South Korea's calculators were worn out to no avail; with 3 points, the situation is basically hopeless.

Back home, the comments section on Naver Sports was more heated than the World Cup, with top comments cutting deeper than the last: "The match-fixing was perfectly executed; Australia and Paraguay were just short of holding hands and singing 'Auld Lang Syne'." "Germany lost to Ecuador, Japan drew with Sweden, and then this 0-0—three consecutive hits, a death sentence." "Are we being 'done in' again?"

This feeling is all too familiar. Back in 2002, the Korean team was criticized for "referee favoritism," and now they've become the ones being "fooled." In 2018, South Korea beat Germany 2-0, and German fans said they were "done in"; now Korean fans are experiencing the same taste.

Players' social media: A dead silence

Son Heung-min's Instagram account hasn't posted a single word since the loss to South Africa. The last post was a photo from the training ground three days ago, with the caption as simple as can be: "Focus on the next game."

Kim Min-jae was even more straightforward, setting his posts to only three days visible, so nothing can be seen. Some media caught players coming out of the locker room and asked about their thoughts on the advancement situation, but they all dodged the topic and walked away, heads lower than usual.

When Hong Myung-bo was cornered by reporters after the match, his words were particularly helpless: "We made mistakes, and our fate is no longer in our hands." It sounded almost like resignation, and the tactical controversies were magnified endlessly—why was Son Heung-min benched in a must-win match? Why did they have 68% possession in the first half but only 3 shots on target?

Some journalists noted that Hong's substitutions in that match were all midfielders in the first half, and only when they were 0-1 down in the second half did they hurriedly bring on Son Heung-min, with less than 30 minutes left. Son Heung-min's touches after coming off the bench were pitifully few, and he couldn't piece together a proper attack despite giving his all.

Rule maze: Why are 3 points so hard?

This World Cup expanded to 48 teams, and the rules have become more complex. The top two from each of the 12 groups advance directly to the round of 32, leaving eight spots for the best third-placed teams.

The ranking of third-placed teams is determined by five criteria in order: points, goal difference, goals scored, fair play points, and pre-tournament FIFA rankings. South Korea now has 1 win and 2 losses, 3 points, a goal difference of -1, and only 2 goals scored.

The key is that the results of other third-placed teams are devastating. After the 0-0 draw in Group D, both Australia and Paraguay have 4 points. Combined with Ecuador in Group E (4 points), Sweden in Group F (4 points), and Bosnia and Herzegovina in Group B (4 points), several third-placed teams with 4 points have emerged.

South Korea's 3 points rank quite low among them. The only hope is that all pending third-placed teams end with 3 points or less, or with a worse goal difference than -1. Some fans calculated that South Korea's probability of advancing has dropped below 86% and is still falling.

Suspicion of match-fixing: Is there really a trick?

In Group D's match between Australia and Paraguay, the calculations were clear before the game. A draw ensured Australia the second spot in the group. Paraguay, with 1 point from the draw, would have 4 points and be basically safe in the top eight among the 12 third-placed teams. Neither side needed to go all out.

The actual game matched that feeling. In the first half, Paraguay had only 36% possession and zero shots on goal, while Australia, with 64% possession, managed just three shots. In the 3rd minute, Owen's cross in the box was saved by Paraguay's goalkeeper Hill with one hand, and after that, there were no real attempts on goal.

Some fans analyzed the footage and found that in the second half, the tackles looked fierce, but fouls were all in irrelevant areas; sliding tackles were aggressive but withdrawn in time; crosses from the flanks were always just a bit off. By the stoppage time, neither side even seemed to push forward.

FIFA's rules have a vague definition of "passive play." As long as players are running and passing, without obviously standing still, the referee cannot call it. The boundary between calculation in competitive sports and sportsmanship becomes particularly blurry at such times.

Asian teams: Why is it always so hard?

Japan's situation is much more stable. A 1-1 draw with Sweden earned them 5 points, securing second place and direct advancement. Although Australia's draw was criticized as "match-fixing," their tactical execution was solid, their defense tight, and they avoided the kind of low-level mistakes South Korea made.

South Korea's loss to South Africa was mainly due to confused tactical thinking. Before the match, they shouted "go all out for victory," but on the pitch, they only wanted a draw. In the end, they got neither the draw nor the win, losing 3 points. The 68% possession looked good, but it was all back-passing, unable to break down the defense, with an absurdly low attacking conversion rate.

Asian powerhouses have always been marginalized in the political ecology of the World Cup. Hidden factors like VAR application and schedule arrangements are hard to explain. Some fans noticed that South Korea had less rest time than their opponents in all three matches, and the final must-win game was played during the hottest period of the day. These details accumulate and do affect performance.

Own shortcomings or environmental sacrifice?

Reviewing the entire group stage, South Korea's first-round 2-1 comeback win over the Czech Republic was impressive. The second-round 0-1 loss to host Mexico was also reasonable. But the final round's 0-1 loss to South Africa was full of fatal mistakes.

Tactically, they were too conservative—aiming for a draw but failing to secure it. In personnel, they took too big a risk—benching the core Son Heung-min in a must-win game. Mentally, they were too hesitant—wanting to advance but fearing injury, ending up empty-handed.

The tournament format indeed gives other teams room for "tactical draws." The rule that 4 points basically secures advancement led Australia and Paraguay to choose the safest approach. But ultimately, if South Korea had managed a draw in that match, they would be sitting on 4 points themselves and wouldn't need to care about anyone else's results.

Uncertainty always exists in football, and the new format after expansion amplifies this randomness. Is South Korea's predicament a necessity of tactical errors or an accident of format sacrifice? This question might not even be answerable by Hong Myung-bo himself.

The only certainty is that the competitiveness of Asian football on the world stage is far more than the outcome of a single match. South Korea might be eliminated this time, but what about the next World Cup? Japan and Australia have proven Asian teams can advance consistently. South Korea's need for reflection may be greater than expected.