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Gold
Resistance Levels (Top to Bottom)
1. First Resistance: 4090-4100 (Intraday high + previous breakdown platform, strong selling zone)
2. Second Resistance: 4040-4050 (5/10-day moving average suppression, short-term bounce limit)
3. Key Pivot: 4000 round number; only holding above 4100 will ease the bearish structure
Support Levels (Top to Bottom)
1. Near-term Support: 4020-4000 (Yesterday's closing range, bulls vs bears tug-of-war)
2. Strong Support: 3970-3980 (Previous low, physical buying defense zone)
3. Critical Breakdown Level: 3950; an effective break below will open a new round of downside space, targeting the 3900/3800 range
Market Momentum Assessment
1. Intraday Short-term: Oversold bounce, but multiple resistance layers above; a rally near 4090 is likely to face selling pressure and retreat, maintaining a high-level range with a bearish bias.
2. Weekly Medium-term: The overall bearish structure remains intact. This rebound is a repair phase within the downtrend. Without a major dovish shift from the Fed, the bounce may end and risk further declines below 3900.
3. Long-term Divergence: Short-term rates dominate the downside; long-term, as global central banks continue buying gold and the dollar's credit weakens, deep corrections offer long-term allocation opportunities. However, bottom-fishing is not advisable in the near term.
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