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Turn on the computer, pull the curtains, turn off the light, light a cigarette, looked at the chart, decided to continue the Northern Expedition. $OPG
Breaking news: Trump publicly announced that U.S. military aircraft have carried out airstrikes on Iran’s missile and drone storage bases, as well as coastal radar positions, citing Iran’s violation of the ceasefire agreement, while also delivering a hard warning that if negotiations break down, the Iranian regime will be completely dismantled.🔥
But the core logic of the oil market is clear:
Buy the rumor, sell the fact: In the past few weeks, the market has already been pricing in the risk of a U.S.-Iran conflict, with the geopolitical premium pulled up in advance. Now that the news of military strikes has been officially confirmed, long positions are taking profits in a concentrated way, while safe-haven buying has retreated across the board;
This operation involves only targeted and precise strikes on military facilities, with no blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and no actions to launch a full-scale war. Oil supply channels are completely unaffected, and there is no risk of a real supply disruption;
With global oil demand remaining weak, U.S. crude oil production continuing to rise, and Saudi Arabia increasing exports—multiple fundamental bearish factors reinforcing each other—oil prices are under pressure and trending downward.