📉 Short-term Technical Bias

* Consolidation with bearish tendency: Although the price has found some support in the $58,000-$60,000 range (some views suggest a short-term bottom may be forming), there is heavy resistance above $61,000-$63,000, and the moving average system remains in a bearish arrangement. Weekend trading volumes are typically low; without significant positive catalysts, the market is likely to continue consolidating at low levels tomorrow, with short-term bearish sentiment not fully dissipated.
* Key signals: If the price can break and hold above $60,500-$61,000 with volume, it may trigger a short-term rebound; conversely, if it breaks below the strong support of $58,000, there is a risk of further decline.

🔍 Core Influencing Factors

* Macro and liquidity (bearish): U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen sustained net outflows recently (outflows for over a week), indicating weak institutional buying momentum; combined with the Fed's hawkish expectations and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East conflicts), risk assets are under overall pressure.
* On-chain sentiment (bottoming signal): The Fear and Greed Index is in "Extreme Fear" (range 10-17), and the UTXO loss ratio has dropped to a low point. Historically, this often characterizes a temporary bottom. Long-term holders show signs of accumulation, but the direct driving force for tomorrow's short-term moves is limited.

⚠️ Risk Warning

Tomorrow is the transition from weekend to Monday, with relatively low liquidity, making it prone to erratic price swings. Any forecasts are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please manage your position risk and closely watch the $60,000 level and the sentiment at the U.S. stock market opening.