Galaxy Research lowers the probability of the CLARITY bill passing to 50%: The Senate's July schedule is key.

Galaxy Research's latest report lowers the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 60% to 50%. If the Senate Majority Leader does not schedule a vote by early July, the legislation may be delayed until September.

(Previous context: CLARITY Act faces key Senate vote today: 130 amendments, 8,000 opposition letters from banks, Polymarket predicts only 60% chance of passage)

(Background: Grayscale Research Head: Crypto protocol P/E ratios are in single digits, CLARITY Act will unlock valuation potential)

Table of Contents

Toggle

• July marks the start of the countdown
• Probability trajectory: from 55% to 75% and back to 50%
• Three unresolved points of contention
• Two scenario predictions
• Market effects after passage

The U.S. crypto industry faces the final legislative push this year. In its latest weekly report, Galaxy Research, a division of Galaxy Digital, announced that the Senate's legislative schedule continues to tighten, with the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 revised down from 60% three weeks ago to 50%.

July marks the start of the countdown

The report provides a clear deadline: the Senate Majority Leader must schedule a vote by early July at the latest for the bill to be deliberated before the August congressional recess. If this window is missed, the legislative process will be delayed until September, when the political factors of the midterm elections will become a new variable.

The priority vote on the 2027 fiscal year National Defense Authorization Act also occupies the Senate schedule, further compressing the window for the CLARITY Act.

Probability trajectory: from 55% to 75% and back to 50%

Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn provides the full probability trajectory in the report:

• End of April: 55% probability
• After May 14 Senate deliberation: revised up to 75%
• Late May: pulled back to 60%
• June 26: revised down to 50% in this update

This indicates that the legislative momentum for the CLARITY Act is fading rather than building.

Three unresolved points of contention

The report identifies three current sticking points for the bill:

• The texts from the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee have not been unified; they remain separate versions.
• Cross-party disagreements exist over conflict-of-interest clauses.
• No consensus has been reached on the developer protection provisions in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA).

Two scenario predictions

The report also outlines the conditions for upward and downward revisions: if a unified text emerges and a vote takes place in July, the 50% probability could rise back to 60% or higher; conversely, if there is no concrete action throughout July, the number will continue to decline.

Market effects after passage

The CLARITY Act covers stablecoin interest rate mechanisms, DeFi protection measures, and digital asset market structure. Its passage would establish a clear regulatory framework for the crypto industry.

Chain effects that Taiwanese investors can watch: after U.S. regulatory certainty increases, capital flows typically spread from large-cap crypto assets to small- and mid-cap tokens. If Taiwan's local stablecoin regulations (currently under observation by the central bank) are formulated early by referencing the U.S. model, it could reduce the compliance costs for future New Taiwan dollar-pegged stablecoins.