Bubble prophet Graham warns: Bitcoin will face a 'quiet recession', with no cash flow and no intrinsic value.

British billionaire Jeremy Graham once again publicly criticizes Bitcoin. He points out that it lacks fundamental support and cash flow, and may face a quiet decline as attention wanes.

Jeremy Grantham Questions Bitcoin's Long-Term Investment Value Again

Jeremy Grantham, the British billionaire and co-founder of GMO, known for predicting asset bubbles, has once again publicly criticized Bitcoin. He believes that the biggest risk for Bitcoin in the future may not be a sharp crash in a short period, but rather a long, slow erosion of value as market enthusiasm gradually fades.

Grantham stated that Bitcoin's price is primarily built on market consensus and investor confidence. It does not generate cash flow and lacks intrinsic value that can be evaluated through traditional methods, so its price is highly dependent on sustained market demand. If interest in cryptocurrencies gradually declines, prices could slide slowly over time rather than experiencing a sharp one-time correction.

He believes that markets often equate bubble bursts with violent crashes, but some assets decline through a gradual reduction in trading volume, slow capital outflow, and diminishing market attention, eventually leading to a prolonged downturn.

Believes Bitcoin Lacks Fundamental Support

Grantham has long analyzed markets from a value investing perspective. He says stocks represent a company's future profitability, bonds provide fixed income, real estate offers rental income, and gold has industrial and jewelry uses—all of which have relatively clear value foundations.

In contrast, he argues that Bitcoin has no cash flow and no fundamentals for building valuation models, making it difficult to determine a reasonable price range. Price movements are mainly driven by market sentiment, capital flows, and investor confidence. Once market enthusiasm fades, valuations could face sustained pressure.

Grantham also noted that Bitcoin's price increases in recent years have been largely driven by investment demand, while actual payments, commercial applications, and daily usage remain relatively limited. If the inflow of new capital slows, market demand could cool correspondingly.

Institutional Fund Inflows Have Not Changed His View

In the past two years, Bitcoin spot ETFs have been listed in the United States, and several publicly traded companies have added Bitcoin to their asset allocations, bringing more institutional investors into the market. Some market participants believe this indicates Bitcoin is gradually integrating into mainstream financial markets.

Grantham, however, believes that while ETFs have improved investment convenience and expanded market size, they have not changed Bitcoin's inherent lack of cash flow and fundamental support. He says financial products increase investment channels, but not the intrinsic value of the asset itself.

Recently, Bitcoin's price has been impacted by high interest rates, a strong U.S. dollar, and capital outflows. Grantham believes that when global liquidity contracts and investors reallocate risk assets, highly volatile assets will be more vulnerable, and Bitcoin may face pressure from slowing demand growth.

Market Diverges on Bitcoin's Long-Term Prospects

Grantham's views contrast sharply with those of cryptocurrency supporters. Supporters argue that Bitcoin has fixed supply, decentralization, and inflation-hedging properties. With spot ETFs continuing to attract institutional capital and companies gradually adopting Bitcoin treasury strategies, long-term demand still has room to grow.

On the other hand, some analysts believe that Bitcoin is increasingly influenced by the global macroeconomic environment, including monetary policy, liquidity, and market risk appetite, which have become key factors driving its price. Therefore, future performance may not be entirely dictated by market sentiment.

Grantham maintains his consistent stance, believing that the market will ultimately return to the fundamental value of assets. He expects that Bitcoin's future challenges are more likely to come from declining market attention, reduced capital inflows, and slowing demand growth, and these changes could persist for years, leading to what he describes as a "quiet decline."