The US and Iran agree to stop mutual attacks and will meet in Qatar on Tuesday! The dispute over the Strait of Hormuz becomes the focus, with the ceasefire on the brink of collapse after only 11 days.

The United States and Iran have agreed to halt all military strikes and will meet in Doha, Qatar on Tuesday to attempt to resolve their dispute over navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz. This ceasefire agreement, signed only 11 days ago, is on the verge of collapse due to disagreements over the interpretation of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), with Trump threatening to "restart the war."

(Previous Summary: Draft of the US-Iran Peace Agreement Exposed! US military withdrawal in exchange for "unblocking the Strait of Hormuz," crude oil plummets below $89) (Background Supplement: Iran Updates "US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)" Framework: Demands $12 billion in frozen funds, charges tolls for the Strait of Hormuz)

Table of Contents

Toggle

• Key Contradiction in the MoU: Who Calls the Shots?
• From Nuclear Talks to the Strait Crisis: Doha Meeting Focus Shifts
• Potential Impact on the Crypto Market: Oil Prices × Fed × Safe-Haven Narrative

The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has been pulled back from the brink of collapse. According to Axios, citing senior US officials, both sides have agreed to "cease all kinetic activity" and will hold face-to-face talks in Doha, Qatar on Tuesday, focusing on the dispute over transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Another US official added that both sides will "temporarily" stand down, "ships can travel freely," and technical negotiations will continue.

Behind this consensus lies the reality of a precarious ceasefire agreement. The US-Iran ceasefire was signed only 11 days ago, and recently both sides have resumed mutual attacks, with President Trump threatening to restart the war and "finish the job." The spark reigniting the conflict stems from completely opposing interpretations of the Strait of Hormuz provisions in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

Key Contradiction in the MoU: Who Calls the Shots?

According to the MoU, Iran commits to "doing its utmost" to allow commercial ships to safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz; in exchange, the US lifts the blockade on Iranian ports. During negotiations in Switzerland last week, a US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance reached a consensus with Iran to establish a "hotline" between US forces and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to coordinate transit order in the Strait.

However, as of last Saturday, the hotline had not been activated, and Iran had already begun demanding that ships must coordinate before passing. This has led outsiders to question whether Tehran truly intends to comply with the MoU or is using "technical delays" to gradually regain de facto control over the Strait.

From Nuclear Talks to the Strait Crisis: Doha Meeting Focus Shifts

Tuesday's Doha talks were originally scheduled for Switzerland and were set to focus on Iran's nuclear program, but with the escalating situation in the Strait of Hormuz, both the location and focus of the talks have shifted. US technical team leader Nick Stewart is expected to attend, and the White House has not yet issued an official comment.

For global markets, the Strait of Hormuz is the passageway for approximately 21% of global oil consumption. Any obstruction to transit could immediately push up oil prices, affecting inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's policy path, which in turn impacts capital flows into risk assets like Bitcoin.

Potential Impact on the Crypto Market: Oil Prices × Fed × Safe-Haven Narrative

During the US-Iran conflict over the past two months, Bitcoin prices have shown a clear negative correlation with oil prices: whenever tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated and oil prices surged, Bitcoin often came under pressure due to heightened market risk aversion; conversely, when ceasefire news emerged, the crypto market saw a notable rebound.

If Tuesday's Doha talks can produce a concrete agreement—especially clarifying transit rules in the Strait and officially activating the hotline—a drop in oil prices would reduce inflationary pressure, providing the Fed more room to cut rates, constituting a medium-term positive for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Conversely, if negotiations fail and Trump follows through on the threat to "restart the war," risk assets may face a new wave of sell-offs.

Notably, the US-Iran conflict is also reshaping Middle Eastern countries' regulatory attitudes toward cryptocurrencies. Qatar, as the host of these peace talks, has recently accelerated research into digital asset regulatory frameworks, as Doha attempts to establish itself as a Web3 hub in the Middle East beyond its traditional role as an energy intermediary.