To be honest, this kind of blind, unwavering confidence already feels a bit irrational.

I’m not saying that it’s impossible to touch $50k, but when 76% of people are absolutely convinced that it will happen, the market often moves the opposite way—most likely first ushering in a long period of consolidation, grinding, and churning.

The market has always loved to harvest unanimous consensus. Honestly, the “leverage/clustered” risks exposed in the current situation are actually even more prominent than the risks on the other side.

Once it breaks below $54k, the next key support level is likely to fall to $48k—that is, the phase high when the IBIT ETF was approved.

Only if it can hold the previous key support level will the market have a chance to calm down and repair.

Most of the earlier long positions have already been liquidated, and the risk from the current “leveraged crowded” exposure is now even more obvious.

The above is only some personal views I’ve drawn from short-term cycles. Bear market trends are always brutal and without mercy—keeping a level head, and learning to accept reality, is the most important thing in trading. #