On June 30, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) experienced a significant decline, subsequently oscillating in a low range of $1,580 - $1,620, with fragile market sentiment and intense long-short contention.

📊 Market Overview

ETH has dropped approximately 48% year-to-date, nearly erasing five years of gains. Spot ETFs have seen net outflows for seven consecutive weeks, with institutions continuing to withdraw, putting clear short-term pressure. The current price is far below the 200-day moving average of $2,295, with overhead resistance from SMA 50 ($1,862) and EMA 26 ($1,704) forming multiple layers.

🎯 Key Levels

· Upper Resistance: $1,630 - $1,640 is the first hurdle; $1,700 is the strong resistance ceiling.
· Lower Support: The near-term key defense line is $1,550 - $1,580; if broken, it will test **$1,510**, and may even slide toward $1,400.

⚖ Long-Short Strategies

· Bullish Logic: RSI (36) is near oversold territory, with a bullish crossover signal from the stochastic indicator, suggesting a potential technical repair; moreover, institutional long positions are relatively high, raising the possibility of a short squeeze.
· Bearish Logic: The downtrend pressure is evident, the sustainability of any rebound is questionable, with a high risk of a pullback after a spike; the market lacks incremental capital, and the macro environment of high Fed rates continues to exert pressure.

📝 Operational Reference

Currently, the market is in a "knife-edge" scenario; strictly control position size and stop-losses.

· For a rebound (long): If the price retests $1,550-$1,580 and stabilizes, consider a small long position with a stop-loss at $1,510 and a target of $1,640-$1,660.
· For a pullback (short): If the price bounces to $1,635-$1,660 and faces resistance, consider a small short position with a stop-loss at $1,700 and a target of $1,580-$1,550.

Note: If the price breaks below $1,510 on volume, the bearish trend will continue; if it holds above $1,668 on volume, the short-term structure may turn bullish.#以太坊