I really hope everyone managed to buy the dip in batches during this round, especially those targets I repeatedly mentioned.

Recently, people in the comments have been asking me whether they can still buy now or if it's too late. I've already reminded everyone multiple times in a row. Since the Fed meeting ended on June 18, I’ve been saying almost every day, with the same view unchanged: don’t chase rallies, wait for pullbacks, and buy in batches on dips. I did my best.

Technical Analysis

Back then, I kept emphasizing that the S&P 500 would likely not break below the EMA50 around 7310 effectively. As it turned out, the market only briefly faked a breakdown, hitting a low of 7296 before quickly recovering, while a clear MACD divergence formed on the 1-hour chart.

Last Thursday night, I even drew a chart and gave my prediction in advance: on Friday, there would be a fake dip to around 7300-7310 to shake out panic sellers, followed by a rebound. The subsequent price action basically followed this script. The original chart is here (Figure 1).

Besides technical analysis, I also shared options data at the time.

At that time, the Total Put/Call Ratio reached 1.12, indicating that far more market participants were buying puts than calls, even higher than during the panic at the end of March this year.

Such extreme sentiment often means that once the index stops falling and rebounds, shorts need to cover their positions. Combined with market makers' delta hedging, it can easily form a dual push from Gamma Squeeze and Put unwinding, further amplifying the upside.

Fund flows were also clear.

From June 19 to 30, pension fund quarter-end rebalancing brought about $165 billion in technical selling pressure; CTA models also leaned toward selling during the adjustment. However, these were more short-term fund flows, not a deterioration in fundamentals. According to model estimates, once CTAs turn back to net buying in the next two weeks, the market will regain incremental liquidity support.

Add to that the seasonal factors: the first half of July is historically one of the highest win-rate time windows of the year.

Fundamentals haven’t changed either.

Goldman Sachs expects Q2 corporate earnings to grow about 22% year-over-year. AI capital expenditure remains high, inflation continues to decline, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, and several major risks the market previously worried about have cooled. Against this backdrop, I have always believed that the AI narrative has not been disproven.

Sentiment

I kept saying every day that we are in extreme fear (25). As long as you bought in batches during extreme fear, there shouldn't be major issues.

I have also consistently given this path for the second half of the year without change:

- July remains bullish, expecting earnings season to drive gains.

- August to October is more likely to see high-level consolidation and periodic corrections.

- November to December continues to look bullish for the year-end rally.

If you didn't follow the batch buying before, there's no need to rush to chase highs now. I prefer to wait for the index to break the downtrend line with volume, then retrace to confirm support before looking for a right-hand entry point—better risk-reward ratio.

Finally, let me explain again why I always believed Q (presumably QQQ or similar) would be hard to break below 700.

The reason isn't just fundamentals but also options structure. At that time, a large Put Wall was concentrated in the 700-705 area, meaning there was a very dense concentration of put open interest. For market makers, this usually forms strong hedging support. Once the index approaches this zone, buying pressure tends to emerge, slowing the decline.

Combined with the upcoming earnings season, still strong AI corporate earnings expectations, continued inflation decline, and easing geopolitical risks, I believe the market is more likely to undergo a time-for-space consolidation at high levels rather than entering a bear market directly.

So my judgment has always been: Q will likely maintain a high-level range-bound oscillation around 695-750, selling into strength and buying on weakness, rather than a straight downtrend. Eventually, the low hit 702, which landed right within my previously identified support range, confirming that the Put Wall at 700-705 indeed provided strong support.

This is my investment analysis framework, derived from a multi-dimensional analysis of fundamentals, technicals, options, sentiment, fund flows, and news. I think everyone should be able to understand it. If not, feel free to ask in the comments, and I'll explain patiently.