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Don't deify Michael Burry too much; his success rate is actually very low.
These days, rumors are flying everywhere, once again hyping that the big short Michael Burry has started shorting Micron, Tesla, and chip funds, using news to amplify the semiconductor bubble narrative. In reality, looking at Burry's shorting operations over the past few years related to AI, his win rate is only 30%.
1. Two Shorts on NVIDIA — The Most Notable Failure
Both shorts on NVIDIA ended in failure:
2025 Q1: During the holding period, NVIDIA's stock price rose by 46%
2025 Q3: Short again, stock price rose another 4%
2. Short on Tesla — Losses of Hundreds of Millions of Dollars
Burry shorted Tesla in 2020-2021, ultimately failing with losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. According to holdings data:
March 2021: Held Tesla put options worth approximately 34.36 hundred million yuan
End of June 2021: Held put options equivalent to 1.1 million shares of Tesla