Throughout June, the bitcoin market saw two sides move in completely opposite directions, making this divergence one of the market's most striking narratives.

US-based spot bitcoin ETFs experienced their worst month in history in June, with a net outflow of $4.06 billion, surpassing the previous record of $3.56 billion seen in February 2025 and turning total ETF flows negative for the first time in 2026. During the same period, but in the completely opposite direction, large investors, known as whales, bought over 270,000 bitcoins in two weeks, amounting to approximately $16.7 billion. The majority of these purchases occurred at prices between $58,000 and $62,000.

According to market analysts, this is a familiar pattern: large, long-term investors accumulating while institutions sell, a behavior that has emerged near the lows of past market cycles. Analysts emphasize that these periods, where long-term investors buy coins from sellers, usually occur before the price reaches a recovery point. A technical detail worth noting here is that the US spot premium was negative during the buying period, indicating that the purchases did not come from traditional US spot desks, meaning this demand came from somewhere outside the ETF creation mechanism.

On-chain data also confirms this picture from a different perspective; in early July, long-term investors, regardless of wallet size, returned to net accumulation mode. Furthermore, as of early July, approximately 10.8 million BTC were in unrealized losses while 9.2 million BTC were in profit, a ratio historically seen near capitulation zones, not at peak levels.

Market commentators compared this accumulation of 270,000 BTC to the lows experienced after the 2020 Covid crash and the late 2022 crash, both of which were periods of aggressive buying by large investors followed by a sustainable recovery. But a cautionary tale needs to be added here: such historical similarities don't guarantee a definitive outcome; in both past examples, the recovery didn't come instantly, it required clarification of macroeconomic conditions first.

Another detail that completes this picture is Solana's behavior. Even as Bitcoin touched its 21-month lows, SOL has risen by approximately 15% since early June, driven by protocol updates and a 120% increase in on-chain transfers of tokenized real-world assets, reaching $8.53 billion. Analysts have described this as a familiar pattern, with altcoins generally tending to fall before Bitcoin and recover before it.

Following these developments, Bitcoin tested the $62,000 mark, with the 200-week simple moving average, around $62,650, being watched as a critical line on a weekly basis. For those holding bitcoin positions through Gate, the real question is whether ETF flows will recover or whether macroeconomic pressure will force a new downward leg, because currently the two most closely watched capital groups in the market are making completely opposite bets at the same price levels, and how this disagreement is resolved looks like it will be the main story for bitcoin for the rest of the year.

DYOR 🔍 NFA ✅

$BTC