#Strategy上周减持3588枚BTC

If 1860 is not broken, it will likely oscillate in the 1600-1800 range for a while.

If it breaks through, it will likely attempt 1950-2100.
If it falls below 1550, it will basically go to around 1400 to continue testing strong support.

I. Current overall market structure

1. Daily large cycle: The previous low of $1512 formed a bottom and staged an intermediate rebound, rising nearly 20% in 9 days and stalling at a stage high of $1810; over the past three days, it has been consolidating at highs with decreasing volume and gradually lower highs, with bullish upward momentum clearly weakening. Overall, it is in a bear market rebound phase, and the medium-term bearish trend has not reversed. It has now entered a high-level consolidation period after the rebound, not the start of a new main uptrend.

2. 4-hour short-term cycle: Running in a volatile box, Bollinger Bands tightening, volatility narrowing; MACD red bars continuously shortening, short-term bullish momentum fading; RSI falling back to the 45 zone, neither overbought nor oversold, bulls and bears deadlocked; the overall market is oscillating weakly, with a short-term bias toward a small pullback to digest profits.

3. Capital market: Throughout this rally, volume has been moderate, increasing during the push and continuously shrinking during consolidation; there are no conditions for major players to distribute at highs; large ETH withdrawals from exchanges have surged, long-term holders are moving coins offline and increasing lockups; the ETH/BTC ratio remains weak, with the price mostly following Bitcoin's lead and very few independent moves.

II. Precise key support/resistance levels (for spot and futures)

Resistance levels (top to bottom)

1. First short-term resistance: $1790–$1800, previous double top highs, dense overhead supply, difficult to break through in one go in the short term.

2. Strong stage resistance: $1810, the ceiling of this rebound. Only if it firmly holds above this level with volume can it open upside space, looking toward $1850 and $1900.

Support levels (near to far)

1. Short-term strength/weakness divide: $1750–$1757, today's key battleground, 4-hour moving average center; if effectively broken below here, short-term oscillation turns to weak decline.

2. Medium-term key support: $1720–$1730, the dense cost zone of this rebound's chips, an important defense position for bulls.

3. Trend lifeline: $1680, the critical point of the daily rebound trend. Once the daily close breaks below this, the rebound is completely over, returning to the downtrend channel, with next targets at $1640 and $1600.