From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Analysis, Order Flow, and Price Action, a brief analysis of BTC’s short-term trend

$BTC ‌I. Dow Theory
Primary Trend (1-hour level): The primary downtrend from the historical high of 82,814 on May 6 saw a significant turning point on July 1. Prices plummeted from 82,814 through the secondary high of 73,974 on June 1 to a low of 57,721 on July 1, with a cumulative decline of 25,093. After hitting bottom on July 1, bulls launched a strong counterattack, rebounding to 64,597 on July 6, forming a pattern of "significantly higher lows" (57,721 → 62,256). However, after the high of 64,597 on July 6, prices fell back to 63,385, still failing to break the previous high of 73,974. The primary trend remains downward, but the bearish momentum has clearly weakened.
Short-term Trend (15-minute level): The short-term uptrend from the low of 57,721 on July 1 is ongoing. The short-term low rose from 57,721 (July 1, 01:00) to 62,256 (July 7, 16:45), and the short-term high moved from the 62,000 range to 64,597 (July 6, 21:00). The current price of 63,385 is above the short-term uptrend line, but a short-term pullback formed after the high of 64,597 on July 6. If 62,500 is lost, the short-term uptrend will be broken.
Dow Conclusion: The primary trend is still downward, but the bearish momentum has weakened after hitting bottom on July 1. The short-term trend has entered a pullback phase following the rebound. 62,000 is the short-term life-or-death level; if lost, a retest of 60,000–58,000 is expected. If it can hold above 63,500 and break 64,600, the rebound target is 65,500–67,500.
II. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Fractal Structure: On the 15-minute level, multiple valid top fractals and bottom fractals are marked on the chart.

Top fractals: Appeared at 64,597 (July 6, 21:00), 64,198 (July 7, 16:00), 63,887 (July 7, 10:00), etc. The top fractals moved down from the 64,600 range to the 63,800 range, indicating strong resistance above 64,500 for bulls.

Bottom fractals: Appeared at 57,721 (July 1, 01:00), 60,166 (July 2, 14:00), 62,256 (July 7, 16:45), etc. The bottom fractals showed a significant upward shift, from the 57,700 range to the 62,000 range, indicating increased willingness from bulls to absorb supply.

Bi (Brush) and Line Segments: From the bottom fractal at 57,721 to the top fractal at 64,597 (July 6, 21:00), an extremely strong upward brush formed, with a gain of about 6,876, showing high strength. Then, from the top fractal at 64,597 to the bottom fractal at 62,256 (July 7, 16:45), a downward brush formed, with a decline of about 2,341, showing moderate strength. Currently, from the bottom fractal at 62,256 to the top fractal at 63,739 (July 7, 21:00), an upward brush formed, with a gain of about 1,483, showing moderate-to-weak strength.

Central Hub Zone: In the 60,000–62,500 range, the K-lines from July 2–5 were densely interwoven, forming an upward central hub in the Chan sense. The price has fully broken above the upper edge of this hub, entering a stage of pullback confirmation after the breakout. In the 62,500–64,500 range, K-lines from July 6–7 are densely interwoven, forming a new oscillating hub. The current price of 63,385 is near the midline inside this hub, indicating a stage of directional choice after hub construction.

Chan Conclusion: The upward brush was extremely strong (+6,876) and the downward brush was moderate (-2,341), showing that bulls still dominate. The current stage is one of directional choice after hub construction. In the short term, watch for a valid bottom fractal near 62,500; if formed, the upward brush may restart. If it directly breaks below 62,000, the downward brush will extend, targeting 60,500–59,000.
III. Elliott Wave Theory (Elliott Wave)
Based on the wave structure at the 1-hour level, the trend from the May 6 high of 82,814 is divided into waves, showing a typical pattern of "major five-wave decline completed + ABC rebound unfolding":
Wave 1 (Crash): From 82,814 to the 78,500 range (May 7), a decline of about -4,314.
Wave 2 (Rebound): From 78,500 to 81,051 (May 10), a gain of about +2,551.
Wave 3 (Main Downtrend): From 81,051 to 59,095 (June 5), a decline of about -21,956. This is the most destructive main downtrend wave.
Wave 4 (Rebound): From 59,095 to 67,247 (June 15), a gain of about +8,152. Wave 4 showed moderate strength, reaching the 0.382 retracement of Wave 3.
Wave 5 (Final Crash): From 67,247 to 57,721 (July 1), a decline of about -9,526. Wave 5's magnitude is about 0.4 times the total decline of Waves 1–3, a typical ending wave, with a bottom divergence.
Wave A (Rebound): From 57,721 to 64,597 (July 6), a gain of about +6,876. Wave A's rebound was strong, reaching the 0.618 retracement of Wave 5 (about 64,600).
Wave B (Pullback): From 64,597 to 62,256 (July 7, 16:45), a decline of about -2,341. Wave B's pullback is about 34.1% of Wave A, a typical shallow pullback, indicating strong bulls.
Wave C (Expected): If Wave B ends near 62,256, the target for Wave C equal to Wave A is about 69,100; if Wave C is 1.618 times Wave A, the target is about 71,500. However, resistance above 64,600 is dense, and Wave C may fail.
Elliott Conclusion: Currently at the end of the B-wave adjustment of the ABC rebound after the five-wave decline. The shallow B-wave indicates strong bulls. If the price can hold above 63,000 and break 64,600, Wave C may unfold; if it breaks below 62,000, the ABC rebound fails and the five-wave decline may extend.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis (Volume-Price Analysis)
Overall Volume-Price Characteristics: During the crash phase on July 1, there was extremely obvious heavy volume, with panic selling concentrated and then quickly shrinking, forming a "low volume bottom" signal. During the rebound from July 1–6, volume expanded moderately, indicating orderly entry of bullish funds. After peaking at 64,597 on July 6, volume shrank significantly, showing limited bearish selling pressure, a technical pullback rather than a new crash.
Key Volume-Price Nodes:

At 01:00 on July 1, a heavy-volume bearish candle appeared (volume at 850 million level), dropping from 60,000 to 57,721, with a real body of about 2,279, confirming concentrated panic selling and forming a stage bottom.

At 14:00 on July 2, a heavy-volume bullish candle appeared (volume at 620 million level), surging from 58,500 to 60,166, with a real body of about 1,666, confirming the start of the bull counterattack.

At 21:00 on July 4, a heavy-volume bullish candle appeared (volume at 580 million level), rising from 61,000 to 63,500, with a real body of about 2,500, confirming sustained bullish strength.

At 21:00 on July 6, a heavy-volume bullish candle appeared (volume at 450 million level), rising from 63,000 to 64,597, with a real body of about 1,597, confirming bullish strength reached a stage peak.

At 16:45 on July 7, a low-volume bearish candle appeared (volume at 190 million level), pulling back from 64,000 to 62,256, with a real body of about 1,744, a low-volume pullback indicating limited selling pressure.

Last 10 15-minute K-lines: From 62,256 to 63,385, volume expanded moderately, with the market accumulating upward momentum in the 62,500–63,500 range.

Volume-Price Conclusion: After the heavy volume crash on July 1, the peak on July 6 was followed by a low-volume pullback, showing that panic selling has been fully released. The price is repeatedly contesting around 63,000 with moderate volume, a positive volume-price signal. Key observation: If the rebound to 64,000–64,600 shows a heavy-volume breakout, Wave C may unfold; if a breakdown below 62,000 is accompanied by heavy volume again, the ABC rebound fails.
V. Order Flow (Order Flow)
Volume Profile: Over the past 5 days, the Point of Control (POC) is at 62,679. This is the most densely traded area between bulls and bears, forming the most important current value zone hub. The current price of 63,385 is about 706 above the POC, indicating a slight premium state above the value area.
Current Position Analysis: Price at 63,385 is above POC 62,679, in a slightly premium state above the value area. In order flow theory, a price above the POC means short-term buyers dominate. The price is now testing support by moving toward the POC. The upper edge of the Value Area at 63,767 is short-term resistance, and 62,679 is core support.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):

64,000–65,000: Upper resistance HVN (high-volume zone on July 6, current strong resistance)

62,000–63,500: Core support HVN (high-volume zone from July 2–5, current strong support)

60,000–61,000: Secondary support HVN (high-volume zone on July 1)

58,000–59,000: Extreme support HVN (not yet tested; if 60,000 is broken, it may form)

Delta Analysis (bottom sub-chart): Delta estimates show that during the crash at 01:00 on July 1, Delta turned deeply negative (at -6 billion level), confirming active selling dominance. During the rebound at 14:00 on July 2, Delta turned positive quickly (at +3 billion level), confirming active buying flowed in near 58,000. During the surge at 21:00 on July 6, Delta turned strongly positive again (at +4 billion level), confirming continued active buying near 64,000. Currently, Delta MA12 has slightly declined from the positive zone to just above the zero line (+5M), showing that buying power is still present but selling power is beginning to probe.

Order Flow Conclusion: Price is above POC 62,679, short-term buyers dominate, and the market is in a slight premium state. Above, 64,000 and 64,600 are two key HVN resistances. If sustained positive Delta and heavy-volume breakouts occur at these levels, a rally to 65,500 is possible; if Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 62,000, the ABC rebound fails.
VI. Price Action (Price Action)
Support and Resistance Levels:

Strong Resistance: 82,814 (stage high), 73,974 (June 1 high), 67,500 (June 18 rebound high), 64,597 (July 6 rebound high)

Key Resistance: 65,500 (psychological level), 64,600 (July 6 high), 64,000 (round number)

Key Support: 63,000 (round number), 62,500 (lower edge of July 7 consolidation zone), 62,256 (July 7 pullback low), 61,000 (psychological level), 60,000 (round number), 57,721 (July 1 crash low)

Candlestick Patterns:

At 01:00 on July 1, a large bearish candle with a very long lower shadow appeared (real body about -2,279, lower shadow about 1,500), dropping from 60,000 to 57,721 and then rebounding to 59,200, forming a "hammer" bottom pattern.

At 14:00 on July 2, a large bullish candle with a long lower shadow appeared (real body about +1,666), surging from 58,500 to 60,166, forming a "bullish engulfing" pattern.

At 21:00 on July 6, a bullish candle with a long upper shadow appeared (real body about +1,597, upper shadow about 800), rising from 63,000 to 64,597 and then falling back to 63,800, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern, indicating concentrated selling above 64,500.

At 16:45 on July 7, a low-volume bearish candle appeared, pulling back from 64,000 to 62,256, showing bulls actively retreating to gather strength.

Trend Structure:

Short-term: The uptrend channel from the July 1 low of 57,721 remains valid, with lower rail support around 62,500 and upper rail resistance around 65,500.

Medium-term: The downtrend line from the May 6 high of 82,814 remains valid; the price has not yet broken above it, but the decline slope is slowing.

Price Action Conclusion: In the short term, it is in a strong consolidation zone after a sharp rally. 62,500 is the short-term bullish defense line, and 64,600 is the bull-bear dividing line: a breakout could trigger Wave C rebound toward 65,500–67,500; a loss would lead to a retest of 62,000–60,500.

Comprehensive Analysis
Dow Theory indicates the primary trend is still down but bearish momentum has weakened, with the short-term trend in a pullback phase after the rebound, key levels at 64,600 (up) and 62,000 (down). Chan Theory shows the upward brush was extremely strong (+6,876) and the downward brush moderate (-2,341), currently in a directional choice stage after hub construction. Elliott Wave confirms the five-wave decline is complete, with Wave A of the ABC rebound strong (+6,876) and Wave B shallow (-2,341), suggesting Wave C may unfold. Volume-price analysis shows a positive combination of "heavy volume crash + low volume bottoming + heavy volume rebound + low volume pullback." Order flow shows POC at 62,679, price above POC in a slight premium state, Delta MA12 still above zero. Price action shows multiple patterns: "hammer" + "bullish engulfing" + "shooting star" + "low-volume pullback," with short-term intense bull-bear struggle but 62,500 support still to be confirmed.

Short-term Strategy Suggestions:

Bullish scenario: If the price near 62,500–63,000 shows a low-volume stop + bottom fractal + Delta turning positive, consider going long, target 64,000 → 64,600 → 65,500, stop loss at 61,800.

Bearish scenario: If the rebound near 64,000–64,600 shows a top fractal accompanied by heavy-volume decline, confirming Wave C failure and extension of the five-wave decline, consider shorting, target 62,500 → 61,000, stop loss at 65,200.

Current state: 63,385 is in a strong consolidation zone; short-term bulls have an advantage but resistance at 64,600 is strong. It is recommended to wait for a breakout above 64,600 to confirm Wave C unfolding before chasing long, or wait for a breakdown below 62,000 to confirm ABC rebound failure before chasing short.