Bitcoin Halving Supply Shock Hit Hard as Miner Reserves Fell to a 14-Year Low

New supply dried up while buyers kept buying. Bitcoin miner reserves fell to a 14-year low this week, with tracked wallets holding just 1.81 million BTC. Daily issuance sits near 450 coins after the halving, yet ETF and corporate buying ran near 3,200 BTC per day for the last ten sessions. The gap is now 7x, and the order book shows it.

Hash price data tells why miners sell. At $52 per PH per day, margin for mid-cost rigs fell 18% month over month as difficulty hit 92 T. Older S19s went idle, and hash rate dipped 4.1% from its high. Public miners sold 1,040 BTC out of reserves to cover power bills. Long-term holders did not fill the gap. Coins aged over 155 days rose to 76% of supply, and exchange balances hit 2.28 million BTC, a fresh low.

The bid is not retail froth. On-chain flow shows $1.4 billion moved from exchanges to cold wallets in five days, with average size above $2.8 million. Corporate treasury buys added 12,400 BTC this month. Options data backs it. $75k and $80k calls for August saw $620 million of premium, skew held 5 vol points for calls, and 25-delta risk reversal traded at its highest since March. Perps funding stayed flat near 0.009% per 8h, so leverage is light.

What this sets up is a slow squeeze. When daily buyers need 7x the new coins, price must pull coins from holders. So far, holders want higher offers. Realized price for long-term holders sits near $32k, so even at $68k, profit is deep. Yet spending from that cohort fell to 0.8% of supply per month, versus 1.6% at prior cycle peaks. That shows tight hands.

Risk for bears is a short-cover plus spot bid. Short liquidations above $71k total $1.9 billion on tracked venues. For bulls, risk is a power price shock or a large unlock from a legacy fund. A 50 bps jump in real rates could also trim ETF flow.

The core stays simple. New coins are scarce, old coins are still, and big buyers show up each day. When supply shock meets daily demand, upside opens fast once a key high breaks.
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