The global bull market is over—don’t delude yourself. Staying alive matters more than anything.

On July 17, 2026, global capital markets saw a truly “Black Friday.” Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged by 4,131 points at one point; in China’s A-share market, only 482 stocks rose across the entire market, while 5,001 fell, nearly 200 hit their daily limit down, and the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index both briefly crashed by 8%. This is not a routine pullback—this is a full-scale repricing of asset prices worldwide.

Even before the selloff, top institutions on Wall Street had issued nearly unanimous warnings.

In its latest research report on July 16, Bank of America explicitly said warning signs similar to those before the collapse of the 2000 internet bubble are emerging in the U.S. stock market. The bank pointed out that the VIXEQ index—which measures individual-stock volatility among S&P 500 constituents—has currently reached about 50 points, up roughly 46% year-to-date. By contrast, the VIX index, which reflects overall market fear, is only about 16 points, up roughly 13%. The gap between individual-stock and index volatility is approaching the extreme levels seen in the internet bubble period.

Chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett of Bank of America went even further, saying the current U.S. market is in the largest tech bubble since 2021, and warning that “market shock risk is real.”

In early July, JPMorgan also issued a warning, saying the U.S. stock market is showing a trend highly similar to the months before the internet bubble burst—there is a clear divergence between AI hardware stocks and the share prices of big AI investors. This split is reminiscent of 1999, when “parabolic growth” in communications equipment suppliers was followed by a plunge in capital providers.

Morgan Stanley’s warning was even more systematic—70% of its bear-market signal metrics have been triggered. Of the 20 indicators for the S&P 500, 17 are considered overvalued, with 8 exceeding levels from the internet bubble period. The firm said clearly that the U.S. market is overly concentrated, resembling the peak of the 2000 dot-com bubble.

In its bear-market alert checklist, Citigroup warned that 10 out of 18 global-market alert items have been triggered. The current number of alerts is at the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis, and global equities are in the most “bubble-like” state since 2008.

Ian Goldin, former vice president of the World Bank and a professor at Oxford University, publicly said on July 16 that valuations of leading U.S. companies are severely distorted. A valuation correction is on the way, and the bubble burst will not be confined to the United States—it will affect investors worldwide.

Top investor DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach and Felix Zulauf also warned that a bull market driven by artificial intelligence is near its peak, forecasting that U.S. stocks could fall by 30%-50%.

The warnings aren’t just talk—the market has already answered.

China A-shares: On July 17, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 3%, the Shenzhen Component Index plunged 6%, and the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index both briefly fell by 8%. More than 5,000 stocks across the market declined, with nearly 200 hitting limit down. Among blue-chip leaders with market value above 300k (RMB), more than 40 fell by over 10%, and they were almost entirely technology stocks. MiiCree (中际旭创) fell by more than 14%, while New Yisheng (新易盛) fell by more than 16%.

Japan stocks: The Nikkei 225 plunged nearly 6%, and at one point it was dumping over 4,000 points intraday. Japan’s storage-chip leader Kioxia’s stock price fell 16% in a single day; compared with last month’s high, it has been cut in half by 51%, and its market value has evaporated by about 300 trillion yen (about $185B).

Korean stocks: Korea’s composite stock price index has retreated nearly 25% from its June high. Previously, it had already triggered circuit breaker mechanisms seven times due to KOSPI’s 7% plunge. Goldman Sachs traders disclosed that this week alone, about 350k South Korean retail accounts were forcibly closed, and 1.2 million retail investors received margin call notices.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has already fallen 21% from its historical high on June 22, officially entering a technical bear market.

If the stock market’s decline can still be framed as “structural adjustment,” then the full collapse of safe-haven assets declares an even harsher reality. Silver: Since hitting a historical high of $121.79 per ounce in late January, it has accumulated a drop of nearly 55%, essentially halving. On July 17, spot silver broke below $55 per ounce, hitting the lowest level in nearly 8 months.

$XAU Gold: London spot gold fell below $4,000 per ounce again on July 14. In China, spot gold fell from this year’s high of 1,256 yuan per gram to below 900 yuan per gram, a drop of nearly 30%. In the first half of 2026, international gold prices fell by more than $1,600, with the largest drawdown of about 30%.

$BTC Bitcoin: After exceeding $126k in October 2025, it has slid all the way to around $63k, down about 50%. More worrying is that this round of decline wasn’t triggered by any single sudden event—it’s the ongoing and steady outflow of investors’ interest in allocating to cryptocurrencies. Continued ETF outflows, rising real interest rates, and de-leveraging from corporate coin-hoarding models together form a slow but profound demand retreat.

Some will say that in history, during every pullback, someone always shouts “the bull market is over.” But this time, the core logic that supports the bull market is systematically collapsing:

First, the valuation bubble has reached historical extreme levels. Morgan Stanley’s data shows that eight valuation metrics have exceeded levels from the internet bubble period. Bank of America’s divergence between individual-stock volatility and index volatility is approaching the most extreme levels seen before the bubble burst in 2000. This isn’t “too high”—it’s “extreme.”

Second, a leverage stampede is forming a negative feedback loop. The lesson from the Korean market is deep enough: once leverage, margin calls, and market volatility form a negative feedback loop, an ordinary pullback can quickly transform into a mechanical liquidation stampede. Korea’s KOSPI fell 31% from its peak in just 17 trading days—this pace is identical to what happened in China’s 2015 deleveraging.

Third, the “AI narrative” is breaking down. Bank of America’s July monthly survey shows that the AI bubble, at a 45% weighting, has become the biggest tail risk on the list, surpassing “the second wave of inflation” as the factor institutions worry about most. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen into a bear market; Japan’s chip leaders are halved; and AI hardware stocks are seeing a flood of blood. When the hottest track becomes the biggest risk, the bull market engine has already stalled.

Fourth, capital is withdrawing systematically. Morgan Stanley believes there is only one leading indicator that truly signals the end of the AI trade—whether offshore institutional capital begins to pull out continuously. And what we’re seeing now is: U.S. stocks are experiencing the biggest capital outflow in 4 months; foreign capital has been steadily and heavily exiting the Korean stock market for months; and Bitcoin ETFs have continued to post net outflows. Institutions are voting with their feet.

The global bull market is over. This is not a routine pullback, not a “bull market rebound”—it’s a global repricing of asset prices triggered jointly by extreme valuations, crowded trading, leverage stampedes, and narrative collapse.

This is not a time for “buying the dip.” When the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index drops into a bear market, when 350k Korean retail accounts are forcibly liquidated, when Bitcoin falls from $126k to $63k, and when 5,000 A-share stocks decline—these aren’t signals of “golden pits”; they are signals of systemic risk being released.

What you need now is defense, not offense;
it’s to stay alive, not to bet on a rebound.

Reduce exposure, increase cash allocation, and stay away from assets with high valuations, high leverage, and crowded positioning. Citigroup has already warned: “Don’t blindly buy the dip.” Bank of America suggests: “Sell immediately and lock in profits.” Morgan Stanley recommends taking profits in overvalued sectors such as technology and AI.

In a bull market, making money depends on courage;
in a bear market, staying alive depends on discipline.

The global bull market is over.
Don’t harbor fantasies. Don’t hope for luck.
Staying alive matters more than anything.