$BTC 7.18 Crypto Market Daily Analysis

⚠️Risk Warning: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. This content is for market-reference only and does not constitute investment advice. High-leverage contracts can easily lead to liquidation.
BTC spot price is $63,900. Throughout the day, it traded in a tight range and moved sideways. Today, $1.2 billion of options expired at one concentrated time. The market’s battle centers on the Max Pain level at 63,000. Both long and short sides reduced positions in both directions. Upward momentum kept fading; after failing at 64,500, it pulled back. In the short term, there is a lack of one-directional bias.
ETH is consolidating around 1,820. Its performance is weaker than BTC. Mainstream altcoins are diverging significantly, with small-cap coins seeing funds cash out and exit, while only a small number of public chains show a mild ability to resist declines. Liquidity has turned mixed: BTC spot ETF saw large outflows yesterday, while the ETH ETF maintained a small net inflow. Institutional capital is rotating slightly toward Ethereum, but overall incremental inflows remain insufficient.
At the macro level, long and short forces are pulling against each other. In June, CPI cooling has suppressed rate-hike expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields have edged down. However, Fed officials continue to make hawkish comments. Combined with rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, risk-off sentiment keeps fluctuating, and risk assets face clear pressure. The current market is more like range consolidation after a rebound; without major fundamental catalysts, it’s hard to break out into a new trend.
Key levels: BTC resistance at 64,500-65,000; supports at 63,000 and 62,000. ETH resistance at 1,880; support at 1,780.
Trading approach: In a choppy, range-bound market, strictly control trading frequency. Stay on spot-side and wait for a range breakout before setting up positions. For futures, rely on highs/lows for light-position short-term trades, keep leverage lower to reduce the risk of wick-driven stop-outs. Since altcoin continuity is poor, participate as little as possible; keep monitoring evening movements driven by U.S. Treasury and U.S. stock volatility for short-term opportunities.