MU worth $841—would you dare to bottom-fish?

First, look at the surface: an epic-level earnings report, yet the stock price crashes.

On June 25, the earnings report blew things up: revenue $41.6 billion, up 346% year over year; EPS $25.11, far above expectations. Q4 guidance calls for revenue of $50 billion, gross margin 86%, and all HBM capacity for the next two years is fully sold out. Then what? The stock price went from 1255 straight into a nosedive to 841, dropping by a third.

The weekly trend is still in an upward channel, but the daily chart has formed a clear downward channel—consecutive high-volume bearish candles, and the RSI has entered the oversold zone. Short-term sentiment is at an all-time low, but any trend reversal needs confirmation.

First: the earnings report blew up, but “good news is already priced in” is Wall Street’s standard move.

Revenue surged 346%, gross margin jumped from the lows to 86%, and management says “AI memory shortages will continue until after 2027.” Sounds like a dream?

But if you look closely—on the day the report came out, it surged to 1255, and then immediately started falling. Wall Street logic is always “buy the expectation, sell the fact.” MU had already risen 10x before earnings, so cashing out on the good news is the best time to dump.

Second: macro headwinds, but AI isn’t a normal tech stock.

The new Fed chair Warsh is more hawkish; CPI is 4.2% YoY, and rate-hike expectations are heating up. High rates pressure growth stocks, and the broader tech sector is under stress. The market is starting to doubt the sustainability of AI capital expenditures—rumors about the rotation from “selling AI hardware, buying software” make MU even worse off.

NVIDIA’s GPUs can’t do without MU’s memory—that’s hard demand, not something you can bypass with “software optimization.”

Third: a technical signal has appeared that must be taken seriously.

A sell-off with heavy volume + RSI oversold + potential MACD bottom hidden divergence—this is a typical “panic washout” structure. The long-term upward channel on the weekly chart hasn’t broken, and the 200-week moving average is still pointing up.

If 840 can’t be held, the next stop is 800-820, and then 780, or even 720.

You decide in the face-off between bulls and bears:

One side is:

Revenue +346%, gross margin 86%, the strongest earnings in history

HBM capacity sold out for the next two years, long-term agreements locked in revenue

AI memory shortages continue until after 2027—this isn’t a cyclical stock

841 is a key historical support zone; RSI oversold means high rebound probability

The other side is:

Up 10x from the lows—massive profit-taking

Macro is leaning hawkish; high rates compress tech valuations

Funds rotate out of hardware stocks; near-term sentiment is weak

If 840 breaks, it could accelerate the dip toward 800-720

Key levels

Resistance overhead: 900-950 → 1000-1050 → 1100-1255

Support below: 800-820 → 780 → 720

For short-term traders:

Wait for a high-volume bullish candle to confirm holding above 850, then try going long; target 900-950; stop loss below 800. For the more aggressive: try a small long near 841; stop loss at 800; target 900-950.

For swing traders:

Trade in batches: enter the first tranche near 840, add a second tranche below 820. Keep total position size within 10-20%. Stop loss at 780; target 1000-1100.

For long-term believers:

The 800-850 range is the golden dip of the AI super cycle. Buy in 2-3 batches; target 1250-1500; hold for 1-2 years. But remember—this kind of high-volatility stock: always keep cash for averaging down.

MU now is like Nvidia in 2023—

Earnings explode → short-term pullback of 30% → retail panic sells at a loss → then it rises 5x in two years.

The difference is: when Nvidia back then was down 20% from the peak, you didn’t dare to buy. Now MU has pulled back 33%, yet you still don’t dare to buy.

Every time “good news is already priced in,” it’s institutions’ playbook. Every time “a brutal drop after earnings,” it’s money being delivered to smart people. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4% $SNDK $MU $AMD