#夏日创作营 Day 10 of an Iran-US war: Bitcoin touched 65.7k—how far can this rally go?

I. The Middle East is in turmoil: US stocks fall for the third straight day, but Bitcoin quietly rises
The U.S. military has bombed Iran for 10 consecutive days, and Trump said Iran must “pay the price” for the deaths of U.S. soldiers. Iran isn’t backing down either: it directly bombed U.S. military bases in the Middle East, while the Strait of Hormuz continues to be locked down. Oil prices have surged to $90, and the global economy is struggling to breathe. The three major U.S. stock indexes kept closing lower on Monday, already down for three straight days. With war ongoing, oil prices rising, and earnings season coming soon, market sentiment is being suppressed hard. But interestingly, gold hasn’t moved much, while Bitcoin has instead quietly climbed to around 65,700. In the chaos, Bitcoin seems to be following its own rhythm—like it’s preparing to run an “independent”行情. That’s intriguing. The last time Bitcoin was this “out of step” with everyone else was the 2021 bull market.
II. Big tech earnings are coming—whether the AI bubble is a mule or a horse will be tested
This week has a big event: tech giants like Tesla and Google are set to report earnings one after another. The market isn’t waiting for an “AI story” anymore—it wants solid revenue and real profits. Are the U.S. AI-related plays truly making money, or are they purely inflated by stories? Once the earnings are released, you can’t hide the truth—your underwear won’t stay hidden. If earnings beat expectations, U.S. stocks can hold up for a bit; if they miss, the market may have to re-price everything. Especially with the Middle East war and surging oil prices in the background, any earnings miss could be magnified into a reason for a selloff. So macro conditions this week aren’t stable—war on one side, earnings on the other; no matter what weird stuff comes out on either side, the market could swing sharply.
III. On-chain data: ETF sees net inflows for three straight days—are institutions back?
With macro this messy, Bitcoin’s on-chain side actually produced a few more bullish signals.
Signal 1: Bitcoin ETFs see net inflows for three consecutive days
Over three trading days, Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of $368 million. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC are the main drivers. Last week, total net inflows were $76.2 million, while the previous month was $197 million—institutional demand is warming back up. The ETFs’ unrealized losses have basically returned to breakeven. Previously trapped institutions aren’t feeling as uncomfortable anymore.
Signal 2: Confidence in derivatives is improving—futures open interest rises with price, reaching $32 billion
Options open interest also rose by 7.7% to $30.1 billion. The gap between implied volatility and realized volatility is narrowing—the market’s demand for protective put options is declining, and sentiment is shifting from “fear” to “neutral-to-bullish.”
Signal 3: Exchange BTC inflows are low
In recent days, exchanges received about 22,100 BTC—far below historical extremes. People holding coins aren’t flooding them into exchanges to dump. In short: the supply-demand structure is improving, and sell pressure is manageable. In the short term, the bias is bullish, but it still needs a high-volume bullish candle to confirm a valid breakout of 65,700—without volume, everything is just air.
IV. Volume analysis: Bulls have the upper hand, but it hasn’t reached breakout-level yet
Bulls: mild volume expansion, not “explosion” level
BTC broke from 64K to 65.5K, held above 65k, and completed the consolidation breakout from the prior two weeks. However, spot trading volume has already fallen below $4.5 billion—this volume level isn’t high. Glassnode’s words: “Investors are still waiting for stronger confidence to push the next major move.”
What that means: price is rising, but volume hasn’t fully caught up. A bullish grind higher, not a rocket launch.
Bears: pinned down and getting rubbed the wrong way
Bears liquidated $46.29 million, far more than the bulls. Around the 65K area, this leg lower for shorts got squeezed brutally. On the 4-hour timeframe, the upward impulse wave is complete with no bearish divergence signals. The shorts haven’t organized an effective counterattack yet. Funding rates have stayed negative—shorts are carrying higher costs, leaving room for another squeeze. If price continues to rise, the short funds could turn around and become fuel for the rally. If it closes above 66K with strong volume support, then the breakout is effectively confirmed; the next target would be 67,000–67,500—a second retest toward 68K is highly likely.
V. Summary
Current overall picture:
Macro: Middle East war continues, oil price surges to $90, U.S. stocks fall for three straight days—but Bitcoin doesn’t follow the downside
Flows: ETF net inflows for three straight days, institutional demand improving
On-chain: Exchange BTC inflows are low, sell pressure is controllable
Technical: Holding 65K with a complete bullish structure, but volume hasn’t “exploded” yet
Bitcoin is currently in a “bullish but not yet confirmed strong” state. 65.7K is the key line in the sand—if it breaks through with volume, look for 46.29M–68K; if it can’t, it will keep ranging.