Brent crude just touched $91 as US-Iran tensions flare again, and Goldman Sachs says $120 is on the table if the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted.

Here's the nuance: that's Goldman's upside risk scenario, not their base case. Their actual Q4 forecast is $80, assuming things cool down. But Persian Gulf flows have dropped below 45% of pre-war levels, and roughly 20% of global oil moves through that strait, so the risk is real, not theoretical.

Gas prices are already climbing past $4/gallon in parts of the US. Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news itself. Worth watching closely. DYOR.

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