$BTC Back to 65,390! The US-Iran ceasefire + regulatory optimism hit twice, but can this momentum last until the Fed?

Brothers, how good does this weekend rebound feel?

BTC surged straight from 64,300 to 65,700, a jump of more than 1,400 points. On the news front, two heavy punches—Trump paused military strikes against Iran, oil prices crashed by 5%, and risk assets rebounded across the board; US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the digital asset regulatory Clarity Act bill is “about to pass,” directly igniting the bulls’ sentiment.

But don’t get too excited yet—the real test is the Fed early Wednesday morning. A group of 104 economists placed their bets on staying put, while interest-rate futures priced in a 36% probability of a rate hike. With disagreements this big, it shows the market also lacks confidence. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries spiked to 4.69%, the highest since January 2025. The pressure from high rates on risk assets is absolutely real.

Looking at the chart: the current price is 65,390, and the MA7, MA25, and MA99 lines are all aligned bullishly—at least in the short term, the trend is indeed improving. But 65,722—the previous high—has failed to break through twice today, and resistance above is clearly visible. BlackRock added 1,200 BTC yesterday, which is a positive—yet the outflows from ETFs over two days last Thursday and Friday totaled more than $460 million, also showing institutions are taking profits.

MiG long/short bilateral trading suggestions:
Go long on pullbacks around 64,800 - 65,000, enter when it holds steady; for aggressive entries, go long around 65,000 at the current price; go short if there’s a stall in the 66,500 - 67,300 zone on the way up.

Personal view: Geopolitical easing + regulatory optimism pushed BTC back above 65,000, but this sword from the Fed is still hanging—if Fed remarks turn hawkish, 64,800 may not be held.

#长鑫今日上市成交901亿