$FIL Why do people call FIL a “bottomless pit” that can never recover in the secondary market?

Today let’s talk about the legendary “Storage King” in the crypto circle—Filecoin (FIL)—a project that has ruined countless old investors.

Back then, with the grand narrative of “replacing traditional HTTP, overturning the unified Web3 storage of Amazon AWS,” FIL was driven all the way up to a sky-high $237 in 2021. But to this day, FIL’s price is left at a pitiful $0.74—down 99.7% from its peak! Many friends see it dropping so terribly and think it still has the fundamentals of distributed storage, so they keep wanting to “buy the dip.”
Today I’ll put it plainly: as long as FIL’s tokenomics doesn’t change, in the secondary market it will always be a “bottomless pit” that devours retail capital, and anyone who blindly holds on will end up as cannon fodder.
Why you should never touch FIL at all? Three major fatal flaws are worth pondering:
🚨 Fatal flaw 1: Terrifying malignant inflation—the storage servers are an “unfeeling money-printing machine.” Many people think FIL has already bottomed out, but they overlook the extremely frightening ongoing inflation behind it. An inflation rate of as high as ~21% per year: to incentivize storage providers (miners), the FIL network ruthlessly mints and releases about 130 million to 140 million new FIL every year. Miners’ “rigid sell pressure”: In the real world, storage servers require high hardware costs, data center hosting fees, and massive electricity bills. Miners aren’t charities. Every day, after they mine new coins, their only action is to mindlessly dump and liquidate in the secondary market to cover their real operational costs. Every day, the rigid sell pressure of tens of millions of yuan depends entirely on retail investors in the secondary market to catch it with real money!
🚨 Fatal flaw 2: Early capital’s “across-the-century exit” pressure—besides miners dumping, early frontline investment institutions and teams are also continuously extracting value. FIL conducted an ICO of up to $205 million in 2017. At that time, the institutions’ cost to acquire coins was so low it was outrageous (only a few cents or a few dimes). These tokens have an extremely long linear unlock schedule. This means that even if the coin price is now down to $0.72, for the early VCs and the team back then it’s still several times or even more than ten times pure profit. No matter at what price they unlock, they will choose to keep selling continuously with zero psychological burden.
🚨 Fatal flaw 3: The “complete disconnect” between grand narratives and business reality—FIL’s biggest technical slogan is decentralized storage. But the awkward business reality is: the monetization dilemma of cold storage. Its architecture is better suited for long-term “cold data” backups that aren’t frequently accessed, and it cannot meet the storage throughput demand of today’s AI large models and Web3 hit applications for “high-frequency, high-speed, hot data.” Enterprise customers don’t buy it: now, when enterprises and AI giants choose servers, the first considerations are stability, security, and the ecosystem chain. They’re more willing to keep core data on traditional AWS or Google Cloud. Even if FIL has launched “FVM smart contracts” and “on-chain cloud” now, it still faces a massive “application gap”—with 25 EB of hardware capacity on-chain, but there’s simply no one willing to pay for the corresponding commercial use case.
💡 Summary: FIL’s underlying fate is “bone-breaking after bone-breaking.” ETC is an “empty shell” propped up by no applications and kept alive by sentiment; while FIL is an “infinite blood-draining model” where the larger the hardware scale gets, the more new coins get produced, and the stronger the sell-and-dump pressure becomes. When playing FIL in the secondary market, never believe the so-called “distributed storage is the holy grail of the future.” Its ecosystem has completely decoupled from coin price. Its only survival value: when the technology upgrades or the market goes crazy to hype the DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure) concept, it can follow the sector to produce pulse-like oversold rebounds of 20%-30%. Retail survival rule: treat it purely as a short-term trader who passes through. Grab a rebound and run—never stay a second longer. Anyone trying long-term DCA, or “hodling to death” with the fantasy of FIL returning to the three-digit glory era, will ultimately be worn down by endless inflation and sell pressure.
Fellow Gate brothers, have you paid tuition on FIL? At the current price of $0.74, do you think it’s a gold pit where it can’t fall any further, or still a bottomless pit that keeps going down? Welcome to rip into it in the comments! #FIL #Filecoin #分布式存储 #DePIN