113.5 USD SPCX—are you going to buy the dip on the “Space Dream”?

IPO surged to 135, then within a month it got cut in half to 110. Starship’s test flight was successful, yet it couldn’t lift the stock even by 1 point. With the first earnings report + a lock-up worth trillions about to deal a double blow— is this the golden pit of the “space version of Tesla,” or yet another meat grinder where “good news is already exhausted”?

First, take a look at the surface: deeply oversold, declining volume, ignored by nobody.

ATH 225 fell to 110.85, exactly a 50% retracement. Over the past 5 days it’s down 9.7%, and over 1 month it’s down 25%. The price is far below all moving averages (SMA5≈118, SMA10≈126, SMA20≈141). The candlesticks tell you: the downtrend channel is still intact. RSI rebounded from 29 oversold to the neutral zone of 40–50. MACD is still negative, and all technical indicators are basically saying one thing: either a violent rebound, or continued slow bleeding—no middle option.

First thing: Starship succeeded, but the stock price fell.

On July 24, Starship Flight 13 successfully deployed 20 Starlink satellites, with a controlled splashdown— a milestone in spaceflight history. So, shouldn’t it go up?

The result? The stock didn’t even make a splash.

Why? Because the market has already started trading the Q2 earnings and the release from lock-ups. “Good news is already priced in” + a supply bomb—who would dare to catch a falling knife? What retail investors see is “the rocket succeeded,” while smart money sees “the August 6 unlock of 20% of the float.”

With the same news: if it were on IPO day, it could have rallied 30%; now it can’t even manage a 1% move. It’s not that SpaceX isn’t good—it's that the chip supply structure is just too bad.

Second thing: the release from lock-ups is the biggest “enemy.”

After-hours on August 4 for the first earnings report, about 20% of shares held by early holders become tradable and are unlocked on August 6 (about 60 million shares). Then, from August to October, each tranche continues to release about 7%.

If you don’t get it, it’s fine—I’ll translate it into plain human language:

The float is already small, and suddenly you get an extra 20% sell order supply

Early employee costs may have been just a few dollars, with unrealized gains in the dozens of times

If they don’t sell, are they supposed to hold until next year?

You think you’re buying the dip on “the first space stock,” but actually you’re catching the unlock supply from early employees. Someone calculated that in the next 2–3 months, about 60% of the float may be released—if supply doubles, why wouldn’t the price fall? That would be nothing short of a miracle.

Third thing: the fundamentals are still hardcore, but in the short term you don’t look at fundamentals.

Is SpaceX’s fundamentals bad? Annual revenue is 18.67 billion USD. Starlink users keep growing, and there’s also the AI integration narrative, including a partnership with Google on compute. Analysts’ average target price is 240 USD, implying implied upside of a doubling.

But tell me— which fundamental factor can withstand a “doubling of the float”?

SPCX is a perpetual contract, not a spot stock. Institutions can long/short and “double-kill” at any time. The high beta (5.9) means when the broader market drops 1%, it drops 6%. And with the FOMC meeting coming up, “higher for longer” interest rates are poison for growth stocks.

Bulls vs. bears—see for yourself:

One side is:

From 225 down to 110—down 50%, oversold. There’s strong demand for a technical rebound

Starship success + Q2 earnings could beat expectations

Analyst target price of 240—long-term narrative unchanged

Perpetual longs: funding rate tends to be relatively low, shorts are crowded

The other side is:

Unlock on August 6 of 20% of the float—massive supply pressure

Downtrend channel intact; rebound on shrinking volume with nobody stepping in

Macro is hawkish; funds de-risk before the FOMC

Earnings could be loss-making; if it misses expectations, it could smash through 110 straight away

Key level is 113.5, only 2.65 USD away from the ATL at 110.85.

Resistance overhead: 115–118 → 120–125 → 135 (IPO price)

Support below: 110.85 (ATL) → 109 → 100 (psychological level)

Trading strategy (no useless talk)

For short-term traders (1–5 days):

Sell high and buy low in the 110.5–118 range. If it breaks below 111, you can take a light short, targeting 109–105, with a stop-loss at 114; if it rebounds into 116–118, take a light short, targeting 113–111, with a stop-loss at 120. Leverage ≤5–10x, and position size should not exceed 2% of total capital.

For swing traders (around earnings):

Trim exposure and observe before the August 4 earnings—don’t bet on direction. After earnings, if guidance is strong and the stock doesn’t break 110, you can wait until mid-August after the lock-up digestion is done, then buy the dip, targeting 150+. If it breaks 110 and does so with volume, keep shorting or wait around 100 and reassess.

For long-term gamblers:

Wait and do fixed-sum buys below 100 with eyes closed, betting on “SpaceX = the next Apple.” But remember—don’t go heavy during the lock-up period within three months; you can’t withstand a 30% swing.

SPCX right now is like Coinbase right after its IPO—

It fell from 420 to 180, and everyone thought “it’s finally fully dumped.” Then once the lock-up starts, it dropped again to 40. What happened later? Later it rallied back to 300.

After this 50% plunge, does it fall to 70 or rally back to 200?

The answer isn’t in the candlestick chart—it’s on August 6, the day of the unlock, who ends up catching the bag. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $SPCX $ETH