# 美联储议息

📈 WTI breaks above 108; gold prices stay flat: What is the market afraid of?
Oil prices and gold prices—those “difficult brothers” that usually move up together when geopolitics turns tense—are showing a rare split in their trend. Behind it lies an intense contest between two core logics.
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1. 🚢 Geopolitical premium: from “expectation” to “payment”
The strait’s “toll” has moved from proposal to a substantive stage.
• Key progress: Iran’s comprehensive control plan is leaked from parliament; it’s reported that the first fee has already been credited. Strait transit efficiency has dropped

$BTC
📅 April Federal Reserve Rate Decision Window: The "Undercurrents" in Consensus
​Currently, CME interest rate swap pricing shows a 87.6% probability of maintaining rates unchanged in April, which should be a foregone conclusion of "holding steady."
However, what truly warrants vigilance is that 12.4% rate hike expectation — this probability has doubled since early month, reflecting deep market anxiety about "secondary inflation."
​Core Logic Analysis:
​Hard landing inflation concerns: Recent strength in energy prices and service sector resilience have blurred the return path of PCE data,