Alkind

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is expected to formally declare on Wednesday that it will not extend the ​U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, starting a decade-long clock to wind down the 32-year-old North American free trade zone as the three countries haggle over proposed changes.

U.S. WEIGHS BAN ON FOREIGN SOLAR INVERTERS
The Trump administration is drafting a ban on foreign solar inverters over fears China could use them to disrupt U.S. power supplies.
The FCC proposal could target new foreign inverter models and may be published this year.
The move follows similar European action and reflects growing U.S.-EU concern over Chinese technology in critical energy infrastructure.

🟥 IRAN POWER STRUGGLE THREATENS U.S. PEACE TALKS
Internal divisions in Iran are complicating peace talks with the U.S.
President Masoud Pezeshkian is seeking the release of frozen assets to support the economy, while the Revolutionary Guard is demanding control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The dispute risks delaying negotiations and raises concerns over future shipping through the vital waterway.

◾️A security deal between Israel and Lebanon risks entrenching a stalemate rather than resolving Israel's underlying conflict with Hezbollah by tying Israel's ​pullout from southern Lebanon to the Iran-aligned group's disarmament, a condition regional analysts and politicians say is unattainable.
At its core is a bargain few see as workable: Hezbollah ‌has flatly rejected disarmament, and no Lebanese government has the power to enforce it.

Iranian and U.S. negotiating ​teams were due in Doha this week, but Iran said on Monday no meeting had been scheduled as weekend missile fire from both sides tested the interim ceasefire ‌to end the four-month-old war.
U.S. President Donald Trump is sending his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his envoy Steve Witkoff to lead the negotiating team, according to his press secretary Karoline Leavitt. While Iran is sending its technical delegation to Qatar this week, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said this had "no relation" to the Americans' visit and no talks between the two sides were

TUESDAY'S BREAKING NEWS
GBP | GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
Time: 09:00
Effects: High
Previously: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.6%
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GBP | GDP (YoY) (Q1)
Time: 09:00
Effects: High
Previously: 1.0%
Forecast: 1.1%
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EUR | GERMAN CPI (MoM) (JUN)
Time: 15:00
Effects: High
Previously: -0.2%
Forecast: 0.1%
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USD | CHICAGO PMI (JUN)
Time: 16:45
Effects: High
Previously: 62.7
Forecast: 60.0
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USD | JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (MAY)
Time: 17:00
Effects: High
Previously: 7.618M
Forecast: 7.280

U.S. Supreme Court declines to let Trump remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook

DOLLAR POISED FOR BEST MONTH IN NEARLY A YEAR; EYES ON GULF TENSION AND JOBS DATA
The U.S. dollar held firm on Monday, on ​track for its biggest monthly gain in nearly a year, as Gulf tensions and elevated Treasury yields ‌underpinned demand ahead of key jobs data later in the week.
The U.S. and Iran traded fresh barbs over the weekend before they agreed to stop tit-for-tat attacks and meet in Qatar on Tuesday, leaving investors nervous about the declared ceasefire.

GOLD SLIPS AS FRESH U.S.-IRAN STRIKES BOOST OIL, WHILE FED RATE-HIKE BETS WEIGH
Gold prices eased on Monday as recent ‌U.S.-Iran strikes in the Gulf pushed oil prices higher, while expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes further weighed on the non-yielding metal.
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SM News:
Iranian official tells state TV: Iran did not take part in the technical talks slated for Sunday due to recent attacks and unfulfilled conditions.
U.S. and Iran agree to pause strikes, plan talks this week: Axios citing U.S. officials.

🔴 United States aircraft just struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations, and coastal radar sites, for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN! It is very possible that they will never learn! There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist! President DJT

TRUMP: “I’D BE THE GREATEST COMMUNIST IN HISTORY”
Donald Trump joked he “would be the greatest communist in history,” arguing that communism is easy to sell by promising free food, rent and housing, but said it ultimately leaves countries in ruin. He also claimed communists resort to political assassinations and accused Democrats of corruption and trying to destroy America.
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🟥 The UN Maritime Agency pauses the evacuation of ships through Hormuz - AP.
White House Official: The US is looking into a strike on a ship in Hormuz
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🟥 The UN Maritime Agency pauses the evacuation of ships through Hormuz - AP.
White House Official: The US is looking into a strike on a ship in Hormuz
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ANALYSTS CUT OIL PRICE FORECASTS
Major banks are lowering oil price forecasts as tensions ease and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes. JPMorgan now expects Brent crude to average $80 a barrel in Q4 and $64 next year, citing weaker demand. Capital Economics and Wood Mackenzie also turned more cautious, while Goldman Sachs remains the most bullish, forecasting $85 Brent this year.
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SM News:
RUBIO: There is zero support from Gulf countries for tolls or fees on the Strait of Hormuz.
RUBIO: Had a really, really good meeting with Gulf countries.
US Secretary of State Rubio: A tolling system in Hormuz isn't even workable.
US Secretary of State Rubio: 'Fees' and 'tolls' are the same thing.
US Secretary of State Rubio: I'm not aware of Iran funds held by Qatar being transferred.
US Secretary of State Rubio: Reconstruction fund for Iran was not discussed with Gulf countries.
US Secretary of State Rubio: The Iranian system continues to be led by radical clerics.

⏺U.S. President Donald Trump faced pointed criticism over the Iran war in a closed-door meeting with fellow Republicans on Wednesday, shortly before his administration asked Congress for tens of billions ​of dollars to pay for the conflict.
Several Republicans who attended said Trump engaged in a shouting match with Senator Bill Cassidy, who said the administration needed to explain a framework deal Trump signed last ‌week that gives Iran financial incentives but falls short of the goals he laid out at the war's beginning.

THURSDAY'S BREAKING NEWS
USD | U.S. PRESIDENT TRUMP SPEAKS
Time: 03:30
Effects: High
Previously: —
Forecast: —
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USD | CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (YoY) (MAY)
Time: 15:30
Effects: High
Previously: 3.3%
Forecast: 3.4%
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USD | CORE PCE PRICE INDEX (MoM) (MAY)
Time: 15:30
Effects: High
Previously: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.3%
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USD | GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
Time: 15:30
Effects: High
Previously: 2.0%
Forecast: 1.6%
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USD | DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (MoM) (MAY)
Time: 15:30
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Trump: Iran war powers vote meaningless.
Trump on Iran: Doing great in our negotiations.
Trump: I almost made progress with NATO Sec. Gen. Rutte.
Trump: Unacceptable to have fees on the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump: We need low interest rates.
Trump Supplemental request includes $67.15 billion for the Department of Defense-military programs - White House.
Trump: Zelenskiy is doing pretty well, he's holding his own.
Trump praises Turkey's Erdoğan and Xi for staying out of Iran
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Brent, WTI crude futures settle at their lowest level since the Iran war began at the end of February.
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