#美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 #Gate广场五月交易分享 Powell's final press conference, what did the crypto world hear?
On April 29, no change in interest rates.
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. No cuts, no hikes, which was completely in line with expectations. But what the market heard was not "status quo." It heard: inflation is still high, oil prices are still volatile, tariff impacts haven't fully dissipated, the Fed is starting to argue internally, and Powell doesn't plan to step down immediately.
This was Powell's last press conference as chairman, and also the first time the market saw the mess clearly before Kevin Warsh might take over. For the crypto world, the real issue isn't whether Powell leaves or stays. It's whether money is still cheap or not.
01 No rate change, money started to flow out
Before the meeting, Bitcoin was still hovering around $77k. Not strong, not weak; after all, in early April, it was still around $65k. The market was expecting a familiar script: the Fed pauses first, then leaves room for rate cuts, and stocks and crypto assets continue to rise. But the door didn't close, and a line of security stood at the entrance. Powell said that monetary policy has no preset path; upcoming decisions depend on data, outlook, and risk balance. In plain language: don’t rush to price in rate cuts.
Spot Bitcoin ETF funds responded first. According to SoSoValue data, on April 28, US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows were $89.67 million. By April 29, Eastern Time, net outflows expanded to about $138 million, marking the third consecutive day of outflows. This isn't an epic crash, but the signal is clear: institutions are reluctant to leverage further during the Fed transition, inflation rebound, and oil price surge. Such funds rarely turn completely on a single statement, but they will slow down first. Especially when macro directions are still unclear, buying less is itself a stance. Bitcoin held the $75k level, Ethereum fluctuated around $2,300. Prices don't seem to have collapsed yet, but funds are already pulling back.
02 Four dissenting votes, more embarrassing than no rate cut
The apparent outcome of this meeting was to keep rates unchanged. 8 votes for, 4 against. Stephen Miran wanted an immediate 25 basis point cut; Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan supported holding rates steady but opposed maintaining dovish hints in the statement. One person thought the cut was too slow, three thought the language was too soft. This isn't a hawk vs. dove split, but everyone agreed to hold off for now, yet debates about where to strike next had already begun.
AP reported this was the largest number of dissenting votes since October 1992. In other words, even before Waller officially took the chair, the committee was already divided. For stocks and crypto assets, this is more troublesome than simply "no rate cut." Rates are held steady, inflation is rising, and officials are still divided. Every inflation and employment report could rewrite market expectations.
What markets fear most isn't hawks or doves, but the unpredictability of who might suddenly change the script at the next meeting. The crypto world excels at grand narratives, but prices often only respond to liquidity. When liquidity paths turn foggy, even the most beautiful stories get discounted first.
03 The cold water Powell really threw is inflation
The US unemployment rate in March was 4.3%, little change; the Fed's preferred inflation indicator was 3.5% year-over-year, core inflation 3.2%. Both inflation figures remain above the Fed's 2% target. On one side, Middle East conflicts push global oil prices higher; on the other, tariffs continue to feed into goods prices. Powell said the Fed has assumed tariffs would cause a one-time price increase that would fade over time, but the next two quarters must show that it really happened. His message was straightforward: theoretically, the central bank can penetrate short-term oil shocks; in reality, oil shocks haven't finished, and inflation has been above target for years, so now is not the time to cut rates blindly. This statement hits the crypto world with a different version: don’t interpret "pause on rate hikes" as "immediate easing." In recent years, macro pain has led markets to fantasize about rate cuts; stocks and crypto fall, and everyone starts hoping the Fed will come to rescue. But this time, inflation from oil and tariffs means rate cuts could either save asset prices or reignite inflation expectations. So, they must wait.
Waiting, for highly leveraged markets, is a form of punishment. As long as real interest rates stay high, the cost of holding positions remains. For the crypto world, this is more painful than a simple "no rate cut" because it’s not short-term pain but a continued tightening of the water pipe that the bull market most desires.
04 Waller is not the savior of the crypto world
Many interpret Kevin Waller's potential succession as a new bullish signal for the crypto market. There is some reason for that. He is believed to better understand market signals and has viewed Bitcoin as an important asset and policy pressure gauge. He opposed the Fed directly issuing digital dollars to ordinary people at a Senate hearing, which isn't bad news for private stablecoins. But if you think Waller will immediately open champagne for crypto, think again. If he ultimately takes over, he inherits not a new machine but a dashboard still smoking: inflation remains high, oil prices are volatile, tariffs haven't fully dissipated, and four dissenting votes are on the table. More importantly, Powell hasn't truly left. He explicitly said that after his term ends on May 15, he will continue to serve as a board member for some time.
AP reported this will be the first time since 1948 that a former Fed chair remains on the board as a governor. This has two sides for Bitcoin. On one hand, central bank independence is being torn by political pressure, which might renew some people's belief in the significance of "non-sovereign assets." On the other hand, narratives can't pay your financing costs. If rates stay high and inflation persists, markets might not price in a "knowledgeable crypto chairman," but rather a "more unpredictable Fed." In other words, Waller might bring a more friendly long-term outlook for crypto, but short-term pricing power still lies with inflation and interest rates. That’s very crypto. The good news is real, and the bad news is real too.
05 Summary
The long-term door isn't closed either. The "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" has passed the House and is now transferred to the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. It aims to redraw the regulatory boundaries for US crypto assets: giving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission a more central role in crypto trading, while retaining some authority for the SEC in certain issuance and trading aspects. Stablecoins are also included in more formal policy discussions. The White House Council of Economic Advisers said in a report on April 8 that, under normal assumptions, banning stablecoin yields would only cause banks to lend an extra $2.1 billion, about 0.02% of total loans, but users would lose about $800 million in benefits. Even with the most aggressive assumptions, expanding the stablecoin market to about six times its current size would only add $531 billion in loans, a 4.4% increase in bank lending.
These are all long-term positives. But in the short term, all stories must first pass the test of the Fed. Powell's last appearance at the podium didn't leave the market with a pretty sentence. Instead, he left a more realistic question: when the crypto market is finally about to be institutionalized, can it survive a period of more expensive money first?
Money hasn't gone far; it's just become more expensive.
On April 29, no change in interest rates.
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. No cuts, no hikes, which was completely in line with expectations. But what the market heard was not "status quo." It heard: inflation is still high, oil prices are still volatile, tariff impacts haven't fully dissipated, the Fed is starting to argue internally, and Powell doesn't plan to step down immediately.
This was Powell's last press conference as chairman, and also the first time the market saw the mess clearly before Kevin Warsh might take over. For the crypto world, the real issue isn't whether Powell leaves or stays. It's whether money is still cheap or not.
01 No rate change, money started to flow out
Before the meeting, Bitcoin was still hovering around $77k. Not strong, not weak; after all, in early April, it was still around $65k. The market was expecting a familiar script: the Fed pauses first, then leaves room for rate cuts, and stocks and crypto assets continue to rise. But the door didn't close, and a line of security stood at the entrance. Powell said that monetary policy has no preset path; upcoming decisions depend on data, outlook, and risk balance. In plain language: don’t rush to price in rate cuts.
Spot Bitcoin ETF funds responded first. According to SoSoValue data, on April 28, US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows were $89.67 million. By April 29, Eastern Time, net outflows expanded to about $138 million, marking the third consecutive day of outflows. This isn't an epic crash, but the signal is clear: institutions are reluctant to leverage further during the Fed transition, inflation rebound, and oil price surge. Such funds rarely turn completely on a single statement, but they will slow down first. Especially when macro directions are still unclear, buying less is itself a stance. Bitcoin held the $75k level, Ethereum fluctuated around $2,300. Prices don't seem to have collapsed yet, but funds are already pulling back.
02 Four dissenting votes, more embarrassing than no rate cut
The apparent outcome of this meeting was to keep rates unchanged. 8 votes for, 4 against. Stephen Miran wanted an immediate 25 basis point cut; Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan supported holding rates steady but opposed maintaining dovish hints in the statement. One person thought the cut was too slow, three thought the language was too soft. This isn't a hawk vs. dove split, but everyone agreed to hold off for now, yet debates about where to strike next had already begun.
AP reported this was the largest number of dissenting votes since October 1992. In other words, even before Waller officially took the chair, the committee was already divided. For stocks and crypto assets, this is more troublesome than simply "no rate cut." Rates are held steady, inflation is rising, and officials are still divided. Every inflation and employment report could rewrite market expectations.
What markets fear most isn't hawks or doves, but the unpredictability of who might suddenly change the script at the next meeting. The crypto world excels at grand narratives, but prices often only respond to liquidity. When liquidity paths turn foggy, even the most beautiful stories get discounted first.
03 The cold water Powell really threw is inflation
The US unemployment rate in March was 4.3%, little change; the Fed's preferred inflation indicator was 3.5% year-over-year, core inflation 3.2%. Both inflation figures remain above the Fed's 2% target. On one side, Middle East conflicts push global oil prices higher; on the other, tariffs continue to feed into goods prices. Powell said the Fed has assumed tariffs would cause a one-time price increase that would fade over time, but the next two quarters must show that it really happened. His message was straightforward: theoretically, the central bank can penetrate short-term oil shocks; in reality, oil shocks haven't finished, and inflation has been above target for years, so now is not the time to cut rates blindly. This statement hits the crypto world with a different version: don’t interpret "pause on rate hikes" as "immediate easing." In recent years, macro pain has led markets to fantasize about rate cuts; stocks and crypto fall, and everyone starts hoping the Fed will come to rescue. But this time, inflation from oil and tariffs means rate cuts could either save asset prices or reignite inflation expectations. So, they must wait.
Waiting, for highly leveraged markets, is a form of punishment. As long as real interest rates stay high, the cost of holding positions remains. For the crypto world, this is more painful than a simple "no rate cut" because it’s not short-term pain but a continued tightening of the water pipe that the bull market most desires.
04 Waller is not the savior of the crypto world
Many interpret Kevin Waller's potential succession as a new bullish signal for the crypto market. There is some reason for that. He is believed to better understand market signals and has viewed Bitcoin as an important asset and policy pressure gauge. He opposed the Fed directly issuing digital dollars to ordinary people at a Senate hearing, which isn't bad news for private stablecoins. But if you think Waller will immediately open champagne for crypto, think again. If he ultimately takes over, he inherits not a new machine but a dashboard still smoking: inflation remains high, oil prices are volatile, tariffs haven't fully dissipated, and four dissenting votes are on the table. More importantly, Powell hasn't truly left. He explicitly said that after his term ends on May 15, he will continue to serve as a board member for some time.
AP reported this will be the first time since 1948 that a former Fed chair remains on the board as a governor. This has two sides for Bitcoin. On one hand, central bank independence is being torn by political pressure, which might renew some people's belief in the significance of "non-sovereign assets." On the other hand, narratives can't pay your financing costs. If rates stay high and inflation persists, markets might not price in a "knowledgeable crypto chairman," but rather a "more unpredictable Fed." In other words, Waller might bring a more friendly long-term outlook for crypto, but short-term pricing power still lies with inflation and interest rates. That’s very crypto. The good news is real, and the bad news is real too.
05 Summary
The long-term door isn't closed either. The "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" has passed the House and is now transferred to the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. It aims to redraw the regulatory boundaries for US crypto assets: giving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission a more central role in crypto trading, while retaining some authority for the SEC in certain issuance and trading aspects. Stablecoins are also included in more formal policy discussions. The White House Council of Economic Advisers said in a report on April 8 that, under normal assumptions, banning stablecoin yields would only cause banks to lend an extra $2.1 billion, about 0.02% of total loans, but users would lose about $800 million in benefits. Even with the most aggressive assumptions, expanding the stablecoin market to about six times its current size would only add $531 billion in loans, a 4.4% increase in bank lending.
These are all long-term positives. But in the short term, all stories must first pass the test of the Fed. Powell's last appearance at the podium didn't leave the market with a pretty sentence. Instead, he left a more realistic question: when the crypto market is finally about to be institutionalized, can it survive a period of more expensive money first?
Money hasn't gone far; it's just become more expensive.
