$BTC $SOL $ETH Did BTC break through and then fail? Bitcoin may have had a fake breakout! Micron and Hynix plunge—what to do right now? 1. The market is truly a pity. Let me first talk about the downside catalysts. Bitcoin yesterday finally tested an upside breakout, but at the same time the semiconductor sector got hit across the board. Micron’s stock price directly dropped from the thousand-yuan level to the 800 range, dragging U.S. stocks lower and abruptly interrupting the previously bullish upswing in the crypto market. Has there still been a chance for further upside later? ​ As the overall market’s direction is unclear, retail investors should stick together to stay warm, embrace the community—an established one—focusing deeply for 3 years, and follow the first-tier chain on-chain #沃什称AI是否引发通胀取决于美联储 #ETH站稳1900美元 #BTC Trump’s Dogecoin Çöñåñ (sol chain), last digits: xBQt 2. Short-term rebound opportunities still exist, but don’t rush into the entry. Wait for a pullback to the key strong support before considering long positions. For Bitcoin, focus on the two support levels: 6.33 hundred thousand and 6.28 hundred thousand. If it drops into that range, look for a rebound on the scale of a thousand points. At this stage, keep operations as conservative as possible. Korean stock markets are highly volatile and often see large sell-offs with circuit breakers, which will continue to disrupt global capital market sentiment. ​ 3. ETH’s chart strength should be stronger, and its support levels should be higher than BTC’s as well. Focus on 1875 and 1830. Especially 1830: it was a prior consolidation high. After breaking through, resistance turns into support. If the price pulls back to the right level, then consider setting up long positions. ​ 4. My prediction yesterday was also fairly accurate. I previously mentioned that ETH would test the 1950 resistance zone on the way up. During the night, the price happened to reach that level, and many friends took the opportunity to short—results were quite good. Going forward, once it holds steady and breaks above 1950, the next resistance to watch is 2050. Key levels can be worth marking down. ​ 5. Also, the semiconductor sector has seen a massive drawdown recently. I currently hold short positions. Earlier, I shared the plan: if MU rebounds to around 1000 and meets that pressure zone, take profit and exit. Then reverse and set up shorts. Now for MU, pay attention to support at 880 and 790. Next, scale out profits on dips in batches to capture the profits from this wave of market.

In the short term, if US stocks continue to correct, BTC is likely to face pressure as well. However, if it’s only a normal pullback in tech stocks rather than a tightening of overall market liquidity, then BTC would be lagging down along with the market rather than having its fundamentals deteriorate on its own. Looking at the order book, every time BTC rebounds to around $65k, there is selling pressure. This suggests that many people are choosing to distribute their holdings here. So what the market lacks now is not good news, but new incremental capital. Only if fresh funds keep stepping in to buy, will BTC have a real chance to break through this level. $BTC ‌

Fed Officials Call for Rate Hikes, While the Market Tells You to Shut Up First, take a look at two news items: News 1: Yesterday, Federal Reserve official Loregn said publicly that the Fed “should raise interest rates to deal with stubborn inflation.” The June CPI data isn’t enough to convince her that inflation has returned to a path toward the 2% target. She suggested she might vote against at the FOMC meeting at the end of July. News 2: At the same time, CME FedWatch data shows the market is pricing in an 88.8% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July. One official is calling for rate hikes. The market is telling you: shut up. Who is Loregn? Not an ordinary official Loregn is the Dallas Fed president, and she has a voting right on the FOMC this year. She is the first official to publicly call for rate hikes since Wosh took office. And her wording is extremely direct—raise rates; a month-on-month CPI drop isn’t enough; she leans toward modest rate hikes. In other words: she thinks inflation isn’t going to work out, and in July she wants to vote no. Even Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, while saying “the current monetary policy stance is good,” added one more line: if inflation can’t cool down quickly, “then perhaps we should reconsider our current policy stance.” Hawks are gathering. And the market is sleeping. The CME data is right here: July: Keep unchanged 88.8%, hike 25 bps 11.2% September: Keep unchanged 48.8%, hike 25 bps 46.2%—a coin flip The market thinks a July rate hike is impossible, so it will flip a coin in September. So what is Loregn saying? She’s saying the time to hike is now. How big is this gap? Big enough to trigger violent swings across the entire risk-asset complex around the end-of-July FOMC meeting. Bitcoin is currently hovering near $64,000, just having pulled back from the $65,500 peak. The CPI-good news has already been digested, and ETF outflows are still ongoing. At a time like this, if you add an unexpected rate hike or a strong hawkish signal—how do you think BTC will move? There are two kinds of people in the market right now: First, those betting that nothing will change in July, and nothing will change in September either. They believe inflation has already peaked, and that Wosh’s zero-tolerance stance is just tough talk. These people are holding full long positions now, waiting for rate-cut expectations to ignite the rally. Second, those betting that Loregn isn’t fighting alone. They believe the first FOMC minutes after Wosh took office have already turned hawkish; the drop in the June CPI is just a temporary fall in energy prices, while core inflation remains stubborn. These people have already been trimming risk, or positioning for hedges. Which one are you? My take: Don’t bet on direction—bet on how they respond Before the end-of-July FOMC, more data still needs to come out. The divergence between officials’ statements and the market’s pricing will be tested, again and again, by the data. But one thing is certain: the bigger the disagreement, the bigger the volatility. Bitcoin has just pulled back from the $65,500 high, and the technical picture has already entered a correction cycle. At a time like this, if another policy-side “surprise” comes—whether it’s a rate hike or no hike—the market’s first reaction is always to sell first out of caution. “In front of the Fed, all technicals are made of paper.” Final three lines 1. Loregn calls for rate hikes, and the market treats it like fart—but when too many people are farting, the stench will burn everyone. 2. The probability of a September rate hike is already 46.2%. This isn’t a “low-probability event”—this is a coin flip. 3. In a bull market, death comes from rate-hike expectations; in a bear market, death comes from rate-hike execution—and now, we’re stuck in the middle, with no way forward. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #盘前合约上线长鑫存储 #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4% $BTC $ETH $