Ethereum: A Vital Battle in Weak Following

Ethereum at its current price of $2,160 is positioned within the first resistance zone of $2,150-$2,170. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum exhibits a markedly weaker pattern — it has not established an independent bottom-exploration and recovery structure, but instead passively follows Bitcoin's rebound with less magnitude than Bitcoin.

From a capital flow perspective, this weakness is clearly supported by data. Ethereum ETF has experienced net outflows for four consecutive days, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin ETF inflows, indicating that US institutions show significantly insufficient interest in Ethereum. The Coinbase premium index is in negative territory (-0.0149), further confirming weak US institutional demand — the current Ethereum rebound is primarily driven by Binance users. This "retail-led, institutional-observant" structure naturally lacks sustainability.

However, there are supporting factors on-chain. The MVRV ratio is rebounding around 0.8, which from a long-term perspective falls within the "generational buy" zone, meaning long-term holders' accumulation provides a buffer below. Yet short-term resistance remains heavy. The $2,170-$2,200 zone corresponds to previous highs and Fibonacci 50%-61.8% retracement levels — a tough nut for bulls to crack.

Ethereum's direction today heavily depends on Bitcoin's performance. The bullish scenario involves holding above $2,160 and testing the $2,170-$2,200 zone. If Bitcoin breaks through $71,500, Ethereum may experience catch-up rallies above $2,200 or even challenge $2,240. The bearish scenario involves resistance and pullback in the $2,170-$2,200 zone, with the critical support level at $2,100-$2,108 after breaking below $2,150 — if this position fails, it will confirm the end of the rebound, with potential further declines seeking support at $2,000-$2,030.

Overall, Ethereum's short-term rhythm remains "Bitcoin determines direction, Ethereum determines strength." As long as Bitcoin stays above $70,500, Ethereum can maintain above $2,150; but once Bitcoin meets resistance and pulls back, Ethereum's correction speed and magnitude will exceed Bitcoin's.