May 24 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
News:
Yesterday, BTC briefly retreated to around 74,000 before quickly rebounding, partly attributed to Trump announcing Middle East peace agreements (including Iran-related agreements and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz), which eased geopolitical risks and boosted risk assets🚀
Macro background: Persistent inflation pressure, weakening bond markets, BTC is seen as a hedge asset. Analysts point out that BTC has ended its longest historical period of underperformance compared to the S&P 500 (142 days), and may enter a new phase of relative strength.
Funding:
ETF Flows: Cumulative inflows remain positive through 2026, but the growth rate is slower than in 2024-2025. There was a single-day outflow of $635M in mid-month (a 3-month high), and around $105M net outflow on or around May 22. Major products like BlackRock IBIT contributed mainly to fluctuations.
Funding Rates: After long-term negative values, rates are trending toward mild positive or neutral, indicating sufficient deleveraging, with potential for short squeeze, but not extremely crowded. Historically, prolonged negative funding often signals bottom regions (such as near the $60k low in February).
On-Chain: Active addresses and trading volume have rebounded, holder behavior is becoming more dormant (profit supply ratio rising but not extremely so). Miner revenue remains stable, overall indicating strong bottom signals, but new capital inflow is limited.
Technical:
Recently, the market has been heavily influenced by news, but it is still moving as we expected. Yesterday, we mentioned that this position might trigger a move downward because the main trend has not yet bottomed out. However, even if it moves down, watch for a four-hour divergence, which has now formed a bottom divergence. Next, focus on the four-hour level's zero line rebound.
The market has now returned to the range of 76,400 to 77,700. This V-shaped reversal was mainly driven by news stimuli, so a period of consolidation and correction is expected. Therefore, in the short term, the market will likely fluctuate around this range. In summary, smaller timeframes need to oscillate to determine the larger trend. The weekly level is holding at this position, so the outlook remains positive.
In conclusion, smaller timeframes need to oscillate, but the larger trend is supported at this weekly level, so further downward movement remains a good entry opportunity for dollar-cost averaging.
