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Just caught something interesting about Nio's momentum heading into 2026. The numbers are actually pretty wild if you're paying attention to the EV space.
So December 2025 was massive for them - 48,135 deliveries, up 54.6% year over year. That's their best month ever. But here's where it gets spicy: Q4 as a whole saw 71.7% growth. That's not just growth, that's the kind of trajectory that makes people wonder if this company finally figured something out.
What caught my eye though is how the breakdown tells a different story. Their core Nio brand is still carrying most of the load at 31,897 units, but Onvo and Firefly combined are only doing around 16,000. That gap is actually the opportunity here - management's betting those newer sub-brands have way more room to scale.
They're planning three new large SUV launches across the brands in 2026, targeting 40-50% CAGR over the next couple years. Bold move in a market that's been absolutely brutal on margins.
But here's the part that actually matters: profitability. The CEO confirmed they hit their 17-18% gross margin target in Q4. For context, that's solid territory for EV makers right now. They're also targeting their first adjusted EBIT profit in Q4 2025 and looking to break even on an adjusted basis for full year 2026.
Now, I'm not here to tell you whether to buy or not - that's between you and your own risk tolerance. But what I will say is the conventional wisdom about Nio being a perennial money-loser is looking increasingly outdated. Whether you're a fool to chase this or a fool to ignore it probably depends on your entry point and time horizon. The delivery momentum is real, the margin story is improving, and the profitability angle is actually credible for once.
Worth keeping on your radar if you're tracking the EV space. The next earnings call should be pretty telling about whether this momentum is sustainable or just a Q4 sugar rush.