A 30 trillion yuan trading volume underwrites the rotation map of four major main lines— which phase main line do you like? (2026.05.09))

Data Review: [Taogu Ba]

I. Sentiment Cycle and Key Point Analysis:
The high-level zone within the daily limit-up range, the mid-range zone among consecutive limit-up stocks, the low-level zone within the daily limit-down range, and the proportion of total market transaction amount/market volume at 0.41 mid-range, no obvious change observed from data compared to yesterday. The market has maintained above-median sentiment for several days, indicating a high market tolerance, with even disagreements tending toward repair. It is judged that the current stage is a trend cycle relay adjustment phase.

Sentiment Temperature: Sentiment 50, Moderate

Recent Strong Sectors. The Strongest Sector of the Day. Intra-day Recognizable Stocks Summary:

Recent Sector Effect Timeline Summary:

II. Capital Flow Analysis:
Summary of capital flow—
Recently, highly involved sectors like chips, semiconductors, and lithium batteries have experienced significant capital realization divergences. The continuous market capital focus is on optical communications and PCB sectors, while some funds have shifted to relatively low-priced AI applications, robotics, and commercial aerospace rotations. Overall, capital has not concentrated on a single sector to form a main theme resonance. Candidate main themes are PCB and optical communications. Currently, it remains a phase of alternating sector rotations vying for liquidity.

III. Sector Analysis:
Sectors or concepts showing continued benign trend structures today include: PCB / Copper-clad laminate / Electronic fabric / Copper foil / Computing power / Lithium batteries / Semiconductors / ASIC / Inference chips / Liquid cooling servers / OCS / Optical communication / Optical chips / SpaceX /
These sectors or concepts represent recent profit effects and have high recent capital involvement, serving as directional references for ultra-short-term stock selection.

Lithium Batteries—
In the third stage of the trend cycle.
Stage one led by Rongjie Co., followed by other small players.
Stage two led by Tianhua New Energy, followed by others.
Stage three involves core sector rotation.

Core trend: Tianhua New Energy, Tianqi Lithium, Tinci Materials, Rongjie Co., Enjie Co., Shengxin Lithium Energy, Jiangte Motor, Tibet Everest, Tibet Urban Investment, Yongshan Lithium, Zhongda Mining, Guocheng Mining, with overall weekly K rhythm following sector rotation.

Lithium batteries experienced a recent breakout on Thursday, the first divergence after the surge, causing Yongshan Lithium to hit the limit but fail to break the trend, with Rongjie Co. maintaining four consecutive limit-ups. The high capital involvement suggests a healthy adjustment after the sector index hit new highs. Normal expectation for Friday is a correction; initial rapid recovery was expected, but after a push, inexplicable sell-offs occurred—possibly due to other sectors competing for funds, quant funds employing volatility strategies, or insufficient market consensus. Based on these facts, short-term expectations for lithium batteries are lowered.

Within the rebound and oscillation upward cycle of the index oversold bounce, several key features are observed: 1. High quant fund involvement causes frequent random surges and drops, with strong recovery the next day after large divergences; 2. The rotation rhythm of lithium batteries either shows strong performance every 2-3 days or after about a week of deep correction, followed by another surge; 3. Sector indices or individual stocks often break the 5-10 day moving average, making trend line predictions unreliable.

Based on the above, the upcoming Monday is a critical short-term node. If there is no recovery after a large divergence and drop the next day, it indicates the failure of recent patterns and a deep correction is expected. However, considering fund involvement and the index’s oscillating upward expectation, even without a major rally, a rebound is anticipated. For ultra-short-term strategies, timely adjustments should be made, waiting for the next breakout opportunity on the right side.

Commercial Aerospace—
In the first stage of the trend cycle.
Core sectors alternate and rise.

Recent core sectors: Chengchang Technology, ReSheng Technology, Shenjian Co., China Satellite, Boyun New Materials, Western Materials, Julli Ropes, Tianyin Electromechanical, Xinwei Communications, following sector rhythm and alternating upward trend.

On Friday, commercial aerospace experienced intra-day liquidity competition with other sectors, with funds preemptively betting on weekend news expectations. The late sell-off by funds was a premeditated move to sell to anticipatory funds, which is somewhat positive. For rotation cycle trends, if funds act with consistent expectations, the next day may see a sharp sell-off, but early divergence can be beneficial for later trends.

Current positive signals include recent intensive industry chain news catalyzing the sector, with SpaceX concept leading to new highs, and overall sector sentiment still not at a climax. Weakness signals include the lack of core leading stocks with alternating sector rotation, and overall sector index still facing chip pressure on the left side.

In summary, the recent benign trend structure of commercial aerospace is evident. It’s currently uncertain whether a second wave of large-scale rally will occur. With intensive news catalysts and no peak in sector sentiment, even if adjustments occur, repeated rotations are expected. For individual participation, related satellite ETFs can be considered due to sector rotation.

Domestic Computing Power—
In the first stage of the trend cycle.
Core sectors alternate and lead the rise.

Core sectors: Hongjing Technology, Xiechuang Data, Litong Electronics, currently oscillating upward.
Follow-up rally core: Lianhua Holdings, Hengrui Co., Xingyun Technology, Runjian Co., currently oscillating upward.

Despite sustained sector effects over several days, the limit-ups are mostly from the back rows rotating for arbitrage, with only some front-row leaders showing strong momentum. This indicates that the back rows and sector effects mainly serve to attract hot money, reinforcing the front-row trend.

Currently, there is some mismatch between the leading trend core and sector strength signals. The main difficulty is the high randomness of upward nodes in sectors and stocks, and market funds are more focused on capacity trend logic. Overall, the capital involvement in domestic computing power is insufficient; higher recognition is given to front-row logical stocks rather than expecting a large overall rally. Therefore, from an ultra-short perspective, participation in domestic computing power is challenging; it’s more suitable for swing or medium-long-term investment strategies. Previously, it was suggested to consider low-buying points for related cloud computing ETFs for mid-long-term holdings.

Robotics—
In the first stage of the trial-and-error cycle.

Robotics showed sector effects for two consecutive days, with more than 20 stocks hitting limit-up on Friday, seeming strong. However, there are no large-cap stocks hitting limit-up; the most obvious are Longgong Electric Drive and Sanhua Intelligent Control, which surged then fell back. Related sectors like humanoid robots and reducers saw gains of less than 3%. This indicates that large funds’ recognition is moderate. Unlike chips and semiconductors, which are dominated by institutional funds with large gains and strong capacity stocks, robotics sector effect is strong but with insufficient sector index and capacity stock strength, so the sustainability is questionable.

Current robotics market resembles the late 2022 to early 2023 pattern, led by Wuzhou New Spring and Wanxiang Qianchao, with a cycle of rising followed by a correction after the main theme of commercial aerospace ended and the index lagged. This suggests that during upward cycles, sectors with dense industry chain catalysts tend to rise together, with weak rotation and rebound themes interspersed, helping push the index. During rising cycles, various sectors perform relatively evenly, such as large financials, but with different gains. The impact order of gains is: large institutional capital flow and involvement > industry performance release > sector news catalysts > positive correlation with the index.

Technology line (AI hardware, chips)—
In the 15th stage of the trend cycle.
Stage 15 is led alternately by Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Dongshan Precision, with other small players following.

Electronic fabric core sectors: Honghe Technology, Guoji Fucai, China Jushi, currently oscillating upward.

Resin core sectors: Dongcai Technology, Shengquan Group, Hongchang Electronics, currently oscillating upward.

Copper foil core sectors: Tongguan Copper Foil, Longyang Electronics, Defu Technology, currently oscillating upward.

Copper-clad laminate (CCL) core sectors: Shengyi Technology, Nanya New Materials, Jinan An Guoji, Fangbang Co., with CCL price increases, temporarily oscillating upward.

PCB drill core sectors: Dingtai High-tech, Dazhu CNC, Zhongwu High-tech, entering correction phase, short-term outlook uncertain.

Oxygen-free copper PCB backplane capacity core: Shenghong Technology, Hudian Co., Shennan Circuit, etc., temporarily oscillating upward.

MLCC core sectors: Fenghua High-tech, Sanhuan Group, Yunzhong Technology, with MLCC price increases, temporarily oscillating upward.

Storage chips core sectors: Jiangbolong, Shannon Chip, Demingli, Bawei Storage, short-term outlook uncertain; with performance gradually releasing this year and continuous price increases, likely to trend upward in waves, suitable for mid-long-term logic.

Optical communication core sectors: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Dongshan Precision, Tainfu Communication, Guangxun Technology, with localized upward trends and most in consolidation phase, suitable for mid-long-term.

OCS optical switching core sectors: Tengjing Technology, Guangku Technology, Deke Li, Juguang Technology, Shijia Photonics, with localized upward trends and most in consolidation phase.

Optical chip CW core sectors: Yuanjie Technology, Changguang Huaxin, Yongding Co. (CW + fiber optics), temporarily oscillating upward.

Indium phosphide optical communication core sectors: Yunnan Geology, Xianda Ji Dian, Zhuyi Group, temporarily oscillating upward.

Optical communication rotary vane: F晶 Technology (rotary vane + lithium niobate), Zhongrun Optical, optical materials Faraday rotary vane capacity limited by supply and demand, temporarily oscillating upward.

Lithium niobate core: Tiantong Co., the scarcity of optical material lithium niobate, temporarily oscillating upward.

Optical fiber core sectors: Hangdian Co., Changfei Fiber, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Tongding Interconnection, Zhongtian Technology, as the earliest initiated branch of the tech line, showing localized upward trend.

Glass substrate core sectors: Vog Photonics, Luxshare Precision, FiiFeng Fuliang, Rainbow Co., with localized oscillation upward.

CPU/GPU core sectors: Cambrian, Hygon Information, Great Wall China, Chipone Co., Lanqi Technology (CPU + storage), Loongson Zhongke, temporarily oscillating upward.

Domestic semiconductor front-end trend: North China Huachuang (etching + thin film deposition + manufacturing equipment leader), Tuojing Technology (deposition equipment leader), Jiangfeng Electronics (equipment parts + targets), Fuchuang Precision (equipment parts), Dinglong Co. (coating photoresist), Xinyuan Micro (developing equipment), GreenDa (developing photoresist), Jingce Electronic (metrology and testing equipment), as front-end (wafer manufacturing) related concepts, showing partial new highs with mid-long-term logic.

Domestic semiconductor back-end trend: Changchuan Technology (packaging and testing equipment leader), Changdian Technology (storage packaging and testing), Tongfu Microelectronics (storage packaging and testing), Jingzhida (storage testing), Jinhai Tong (packaging and testing tri-temperature sorting machines), Xidian Co. (probing stations), Helin Micro and Nano (probing), polymer materials (lithography masks), as back-end (packaging and testing) related concepts, with partial new highs and mid-long-term logic.

In optical communication, after the previous wave led by Zhongji Xuchuang ended, the sector entered a consolidation phase. Only Guangxun Technology and Dongshan Precision maintained capacity without significant adjustments, trending upward. Currently, key points include: 1. The previous wave’s early correction and underperformance of OCS branches, 2. Optical communication index has also broken new highs, 3. The strongest recent sub-sector is upstream optical materials and components (OCS / optical chips / optical fibers / lithium niobate / indium phosphide / rotary vane).

Overall, optical communication has already initiated a localized rally. If midstream optical module capacity giants start to rise along with the index, a new wave of market may begin. Key targets include Zhongji Xuchuang, Dongshan Precision, whose large-cap stocks breaking out with gap-ups could signal the start of the next rally.

PCB direction, the last wave of AI hardware correction phase shows PCB as the most resilient sector. Recently, the strongest in AI hardware is the copper-clad laminate concept, with copper foil and electronic fabric as the strongest branches, followed by resin, MLCC, and CCL. The upstream material price increase logic has already started. Currently, key points are: 1. The upstream material supplier Jian Tuo continues a sustained upward trend with monthly price hikes, 2. Shenghong Technology proactively surpasses previous highs, with upstream materials beginning to transmit to midstream capacity board factories, forming a positive cycle.

As long as upstream Jian Tuo maintains the price increase expectation and trend, and capacity stocks follow the signal, PCB could become the next phase main theme for funds targeting AI hardware.

Chip and semiconductor direction, Thursday divergence and Friday correction, as the sector with the highest recent fund involvement and gains, the main logic is the surge of external chips and semiconductors, global CPU shortages and price hikes, and domestic substitution. The sector is mainly driven by the STAR Market, dominated by institutional funds, with retail participation limited. The short-term rapid gains pose risks: no clear concept focus, and the three key indicators—sector strength, large fund recognition, and sector effect—are mismatched. Therefore, the sector lacks sustainable expectations.

At the same time, with the sector index breaking new highs and high fund involvement, short-term rotation is expected. After the first divergence, a pullback correction is likely. Consider low-position dips for re-entry or second breakout opportunities. For those unable to participate in STAR Market, related ETFs can be considered.

IV. Future Index and Market Expectations:

**As shown, on Thursday, the index oscillated upward, deviating slightly from the trend line. Under the main theme of a slow oscillating bull cycle, the index should not deviate too much from the trend line. The Friday opening was slightly weak, consistent with a correction scenario. After a dip, funds moved to buy the dip, showing market resilience. From both index and sentiment perspectives, the index recently faced resistance at the high point on the left side, with sentiment at a peak, initially expecting a relay correction. Whether it will retest the 5-10 day moving average depends on external factors. Since this wave’s strongest sectors—AI hardware and chips/semiconductors—are heavily influenced by external US markets, a weekend rally could reduce the likelihood of a short-term pullback. The trend is likely to continue upward. Moreover, during correction phases, the market has not seen significant volume reduction, maintaining ample liquidity of around 30 trillion yuan, indicating high tolerance.

Whether from the index, volume, or popular stocks index over 5 days, multiple indicators show a benign structure. No need to be bearish; the slow bull market remains the main theme. Small positive days outnumber large negative days, and even sharp dips are opportunities for re-entry.

The resonance among index, volume, and sector forms a healthy structure. As long as gaps are not broken, upward oscillation is expected. Caution is advised as policy supports a slow bull trend; deviations from the 5-day trend line carry correction risks. The bull market features more small positive days and fewer large negative days; sharp declines are opportunities for re-entry.

Next week pre-market outlook:
The index and market are currently in a relay phase, with expectations of short-term trend adjustments. Since the weekend’s US market rally suggests a delay in the trend change, the overall bullish outlook remains. From sector perspectives, after chips and semiconductors diverge and adjust, high opening on external stimuli is possible if funds are absorbed, with potential for the next wave of market movement. Keep an eye on optical communications and PCB as phase seed themes, which could trigger the next rally. Commercial aerospace, with intensive catalysts and rotation expectations, should not be chased aggressively. Also, monitor whether lithium batteries show key recovery signals; if not, wait for a deeper correction opportunity.

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