US Government Makes $2 Billion Bet on Quantum Computing as Threat to Bitcoin Grows

In brief

• The U.S. Department of Commerce will invest more than $2 billion in quantum computing startups and foundries.
• Researchers increasingly warn that “Q-Day,” when quantum computers can break current encryption, could arrive as early as 2030.
• Bitcoin, Ethereum, banks, and internet infrastructure all rely on cryptography that future quantum systems may eventually compromise.

The U.S. government is placing a multibillion-dollar bet on quantum computing as concerns grow that future machines could eventually crack the encryption protecting everything from crypto wallets to banking systems and military networks. The Commerce Department will invest more than $2 billion across nine companies, per a Thursday announcement, with $1 billion going to IBM for a new American quantum manufacturing initiative centered around Anderon—a proposed New York-based quantum wafer foundry designed to scale production of advanced quantum chips. “IBM has pioneered quantum computing for decades. Our work in silicon wafer fabrication has been a key to IBM's success and will be critical to enable a broader quantum technology landscape that will reshape global innovation and economic competitiveness,” IBM CEO and Chairman Arvind Krishna said in a statement. “With the support of the U.S. Department of Commerce, Anderon will be well-positioned to fuel America's fast-growing quantum technology industry.”

Under the proposal, the Department of Commerce would provide $1 billion in CHIPS incentives while IBM contributes another $1 billion in cash, intellectual property, manufacturing assets, and personnel. The facility would be headquartered in Albany, New York, and focus on 300-millimeter superconducting quantum wafer manufacturing.  Beyond the IBM investment, GlobalFoundries is expected to receive $375 million from the U.S. government, while Atom Computing, D-Wave, Infleqtion, PsiQuantum, Quantinuum, and Rigetti are each slated for $100 million awards. Quantum startup Diraq will receive $38 million. In return, the government will take varying equity stakes in each of the companies. “With today’s CHIPS research and development investments in quantum computing, the Trump administration is leading the world into a new era of American innovation,” said Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, in a statement. “These strategic quantum technology investments will build on our domestic industry, creating thousands of high-paying American jobs while advancing American quantum capabilities.”

Superconducting qubits store information using tiny electrical circuits cooled to temperatures colder than space. Unlike normal computer bits, which can only be a 0 or a 1, qubits can exist in multiple states at once, allowing quantum computers to solve some problems much faster than traditional machines. One of the major hurdles in quantum computing is manufacturing the chips themselves. Quantum chips are built on ultra-thin silicon discs called wafers, which hold the qubits and supporting electronics. Producing them requires extremely precise manufacturing and very low error rates. IBM said Anderon will initially make wafers for superconducting quantum chips and related electronics before expanding into other types of quantum hardware. In its quantum roadmap published in November, IBM said it aims to deliver a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. The announcement comes as concerns grow around “Q-Day,” the term used to describe the moment when quantum computers become powerful enough to break the cryptographic systems protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, encrypted communications, banks, and much of the modern internet. Researchers warn that blockchains face a particular risk because transactions are public and irreversible. Once public keys are exposed on-chain, future quantum computers could potentially derive the corresponding private keys and steal funds. Once assets are moved, there is no fraud recovery system capable of reversing the theft. A recent report from quantum security firm Project Eleven warned that a quantum computer capable of breaking the elliptic curve cryptography used by Bitcoin and Ethereum could arrive as early as 2030, as Google researchers separately warn that future quantum systems may require fewer qubits than previously believed to crack modern cryptography. Earlier this week, Citi analysts warned that Bitcoin may face greater long-term exposure than Ethereum because Bitcoin’s governance structure makes major protocol upgrades slower and more politically difficult. The bank estimated that roughly 6.7 to 7 million Bitcoin—up to one-third of the total supply—already sits in wallets with publicly exposed keys.