From the $5 Billion ETF Exodus to Miner Selling: VanEck Report Reveals the Truth of the June BTC Market

Source: VanEck Mid-June BTC Report; Compiled by: Jinse Finance Claw

Key Points

• Bitcoin Sold Off as ETP Outflows Rose: Bitcoin's 30-day average price fell to approximately $70,321 (down 10.3% month-over-month), while U.S. spot ETPs saw cumulative outflows of about $5 billion, with net outflows on 19 of the past 22 trading days.

• Holders Are Capitulating, Not Profit-Taking: Realized losses surged 78% month-over-month to $714 million, while realized profits plunged 57% to $194 million, pushing the realized profit/loss ratio below 1.0, signaling below-normal future returns.

• Bitcoin Miners Rely on Sales and AI to Fund Operations: In May, miner revenue fell 26% year-over-year to approximately $1.12 billion, near the 37th percentile since 2023, as IREN and TeraWulf expanded AI and high-performance computing capabilities.

Despite a Month-End Rebound, Bitcoin Still Faces a Sell-Off Wave in June 2026

Over the past 30 days, BTC prices fell sharply, with the spot price closing at $65,705 on June 14, and the 30-day moving average falling to approximately $70,321 (monthly decline of 10.3%). The sell-off was concentrated in the early period: after hitting a high of nearly $82,186 on May 10, the spot price fell to a low of $60,861 on June 6, then recovered slightly before the Iran nuclear deal on June 14. The BTC ETF market was the main driver of this decline, with net inflows continuing to turn negative, with outflows in 19 of the past 22 trading days, totaling approximately $5 billion.

As of June 11, the total ETF balance fell to $78.8 billion, down about 27% from $107.5 billion a month earlier, and also below the May 5 peak of $109 billion, reflecting continued redemptions and declining remaining positions. Trading volume remained high during the period, averaging about $1.37 billion per day, with macroeconomic uncertainty causing a spike in morning session activity, before falling back to an average of about $1.15 billion per day over the last five trading days.

Weak trading conditions led to declines in multiple on-chain profitability indicators. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) fell to 0.20 (30-day average of 0.25, versus 0.33 last month, down 24.6% month-over-month), roughly at the 18th percentile of the four-year average, below the one-year average of 0.40 and the four-year average of 0.37. The latest data shows Bitcoin has entered the 'Hope/Fear' zone. The percentage of supply in profit fell from 64% to 54%, well below the four-year average of about 81%, with the historical average at only the 9th to 12th percentile. The percentage of supply in loss is now near a four-year high, at the 95th percentile, more than two standard deviations above the mean.

Realized Losses Exceeded Realized Profits by $54 Billion in 2026

Data Source: Glassnode, as of June 15, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This article is not intended to recommend buying or selling any securities mentioned.

The key point is that holders are not taking profits but are forced to sell at a loss. Daily realized profits plunged 57% month-over-month, with the 30-day average only $194 million (13th percentile over the past four years), compared to $447 million in the prior period; meanwhile, realized losses surged 78%, from $402 million to $714 million. The realized profit/loss ratio (RPLR) fell below 1.0, dropping to 0.27 from 1.11 in the previous period, meaning the value of losses far exceeds that of profits. Over the past two years, the ratio averaged 2.2x. Unrealized losses as a percentage of market cap nearly doubled, up 88% month-over-month to about 15%, now at the 79th percentile, confirming the recent broad decline that has caused many tokens to drop in price.

When calculated on a 30-day average, the realized profit/loss ratio (RPLR) can serve as a short-term signal. When the RPLR is below 1, with losses exceeding profits, Bitcoin tends to deliver below-normal returns over the following 1 to 6 months, and this underperformance is statistically significant. Higher RPLR values are associated with normal or above-normal returns, but extreme cases of profit surplus are no better than average, and the apparent 2- to 3-year mean reversion cycle is too thin to be convincing. As of June 14, the 30-day average RPLR was 0.28, indicating overall market losses, with historical data suggesting that returns over the next one to two quarters may be below expectations. Although less statistically significant, returns over one year or more tend to be above average.

Median Forward Returns Under the 30-Day Average RPLR Regime

Options Market Turns Defensive, Put Premiums Rise

BTC put premiums increased 46% month-over-month and 14% year-over-year; the put/call ratio reversed to 0.73 (10th percentile)

Over the past 30 days, as Bitcoin fell about 10%, hedging demand shifted back to downside protection, and the options market turned sharply defensive. Paid put premiums surged 46% month-over-month to $441.3 million, while call premiums fell 34% to $321.3 million, causing the put/call premium ratio to drop from 1.61 to 0.73 (10th percentile historically). Paid put premiums are now at the 82nd percentile, almost the exact opposite of last month's call-dominated positioning. Open interest declined slightly but remained structurally high, with total open interest (OI) down 3.4% month-over-month to $34.2 billion, still at the 84th percentile.

Implied volatility remains at historically low levels, but current buying is concentrated in puts. The 1-month call implied volatility (IV) remained almost unchanged at 36.6% (4th percentile in Bitcoin's history), continuing to hover near multi-year lows. Meanwhile, 1-month put implied volatility rose 2.3 percentage points to 46.5%. This led to increased market skew: the 1-month put/call spread widened from +7.0 percentage points (80th percentile) a month ago to +9.9 percentage points.

On-Chain Data Reveals Bitcoin Holder Behavior

Data Source: Glassnode, as of June 15, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This article is not intended to recommend buying or selling any securities mentioned.

Token transfer volume, or 'token spending,' declined month-over-month but remained higher than the same period last year. In the 30 days ending June 14, 2026, spending volume fell 5.2% month-over-month to 22.2 million BTC, but increased 21.6% year-over-year. Older tokens saw a larger decline, with spending of Bitcoin held for more than one year falling 10.8% month-over-month to 1.55 million BTC.

Turnover, measured by 30-day spending divided by coins held, declined month-over-month in most age cohorts, with the largest decline in the 2-3 year cohort (-51%), and declines of about -6% for both the 7-10 year and 10+ year cohorts. The only exception was the 5-7 year cohort, which rose 7% month-over-month. Year-over-year spending was higher in older cohorts, with the largest increases in the 10+ year cohort (+194%), 2-3 year (+39%), 3-5 year (+34%), and 7-10 year (+26%), while the 1-2 year cohort (-22%) and 5-7 year cohort (-38%) saw declines.

More interesting is Bitcoin's holding duration. The total amount of Bitcoin held for more than one year approached 12.31 million, accounting for 61.4% of the circulating supply, up 2.3% month-over-month, but essentially flat year-over-year (down 0.4%). Among Bitcoin held for over one year, the 1-2 year cohort saw the most significant increase (up 9.9% month-over-month, mainly driven by a 31% month-over-month increase in the 6-12 month cohort), followed by the 5-7 year cohort (up 4.9% month-over-month), while the 2-3 year and 3-5 year cohorts fell 10 basis points and 2.3% month-over-month, respectively. Among them, the 3-5 year cohort stood out, down 30.7% year-over-year and currently 22.7% below its 4-year moving average. Importantly, it's the composition of the decline, not the total number: over the past year, this group gained 6.41 million BTC that had been held for over 3 years; they lost 3.99 million BTC that had been held for over 5-7 years; they also lost 3.31 million BTC for transfers; therefore, for every Bitcoin that flowed out, approximately 55% appreciated, while only 45% were actually spent.

Data Source: Glassnode, as of June 15, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This article is not intended to recommend buying or selling any securities mentioned.

Bitcoin Miners Under Pressure, Daily Revenue Remains Weak

Daily miner revenue down 26% year-over-year

Data Source: Glassnode, as of June 15, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This article is not intended to recommend buying or selling any securities mentioned.

The total on-chain miner balance continues to decline, with the total number of Bitcoin held in miner addresses approaching 1.78 million. While this number is essentially flat year-over-year and month-over-month, it has declined from about 1.83 million at the beginning of 2023, currently around the 37th percentile of the range since 2023. Contrary to the general trend of Bitcoin miners selling Bitcoin to fund AI development, Marathon Digital purchased 1,000 Bitcoin worth $66 million on June 16, 2026, after selling 20,880 Bitcoin at an average price of $70.1k in the first quarter. Nevertheless, the data shows that during periods of low prices, most miners are still selling newly mined Bitcoin to cover operating costs.

In May 2026, miner revenue was approximately $1.12 billion, down about 26% year-over-year (compared to an 18% year-over-year decline in April). On a daily basis, current revenue is only at the 17th percentile over the past 12 months and the 37th percentile since 2023. With balances slowly draining and revenue hovering in the lower third of the recent range, this highlights why miners rely on Bitcoin sales and AI/HPC diversification to sustain cash flow.

Mining Companies Turn to AI: IREN and TeraWulf Expand Computing Capacity

• On May 26, IREN signed a $1.6 billion Blackwell system purchase agreement with Dell to service its $3.4 billion AI cloud management contract. The system is expected to be deployed at its Childress, Texas facility in early 2027, and management expects annualized run-rate revenue to grow from approximately $3.7 billion to $4.4 billion.

• On May 26, TeraWulf added the 285-acre Muskie data campus in eastern Kentucky, which is expected to support over 1 GW of AI and HPC loads.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Bitcoin sell off in the first half of June 2026?

Bitcoin's 30-day average price fell to approximately $70,321, down 10.3% month-over-month. Over the past 22 trading days, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of about $5 billion, with outflows on 19 of those days. The outflow pressure was concentrated in spot products rather than derivatives, indicating that investors are reducing positions rather than simply hedging.

What does the realized profit/loss ratio (RPLR) tell investors?

The RPLR compares the dollar value of coins that increased in price versus those that decreased over a specific period. As realized losses increase and realized profits decrease, the ratio falls below 1.0. Historically, below 1.0 typically signals capitulation selling rather than profit-taking, and is associated with below-normal expected returns over the next one to six months.

Why are Bitcoin miners selling Bitcoin and moving into AI?

As of May 2026, miner revenue was down 26% year-over-year to about $1.12 billion, with daily revenue near the 37th percentile since 2023. Many miners are selling newly mined Bitcoin to cover operating costs during the price downturn. In addition, several operators such as IREN and TeraWulf are also repurposing power and data center capacity for AI and high-performance computing to diversify cash flows.