When Bitcoin dropped to $58k, Chris Sullivan of quant fund Hyperion Decimus made a rare judgment: four historically reliable on-chain indicators have triggered simultaneously, and Bitcoin only needs one move to confirm a major turning point.

What are these four indicators? They didn't elaborate, but historically, such multi-indicator convergence often appears at extreme bottom or top zones. The last similar signal occurred in November 2022, when Bitcoin was around $16k.

However, this time the structural signal is divided. On-chain data shows that the supply in loss hit an all-time high, while the short-term holder cost basis is at $74.8k, diverging from the current price for 8 months. Meanwhile, OG selling has dropped to its lowest in nearly two years, but miner profit margins are compressed, and the stablecoin depegging backed by STRC indicates that underlying leverage is still being unwound.

More concerning is that ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks, while institutions and large holders did not continue betting on a decline before the quarterly settlement—they chose to wait and see. This suggests the market may be in a fragile balance of "crowded shorts but hesitant longs."

Quant funds see turning point signals, but the division in on-chain structure reminds us: a turning point can be a rebound, or a pause before an accelerating decline. Historical indicators are valid, but the market structure has changed.
$btc #稳定币 #etf #链上数据 #blockchain