Citigroup lowers Bitcoin price target for the second time to $82k: ETF net inflow assumption set to zero, funds shift to AI

Wall Street giant Citigroup has turned bearish on cryptocurrency for the second time this year. Citigroup's latest report slashes its 12-month target price for Bitcoin from $112k to $82k (a reduction of about 27%), and for Ethereum from $3,175 to $2,240 (about 29%). Citigroup explicitly states that weakening investor interest, negative ETF inflows, and stalled U.S. digital asset legislation are collectively dragging down crypto prospects, and it even slashes its 12-month ETF net inflow assumption from $10 billion to zero.
(Context: Bitcoin plunges below $58.2k, with $249 million in liquidations in a single day as longs get crushed)
(Background: TD Cowen slashes MicroStrategy's target price to $260! Still maintains 'Buy' on MSTR, praises new capital framework)

Key Summary

• Citigroup lowers its 12-month target price for Bitcoin from $112k to $82k (about -27%), and for Ethereum from $3,175 to $2,240 (about -29%)
• Citigroup slashes its 12-month ETF net inflow assumption from $10 billion to zero; Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows of about $3.3 billion year-to-date
• This is Citigroup's second downgrade this year, mainly due to weakening investor interest, stalled U.S. digital asset legislation, and capital shifting toward AI-related assets

Wall Street giant Citigroup's patience with cryptocurrency is rapidly dwindling. Citigroup's latest report slashes its 12-month target price for Bitcoin from $112k to $82k, a drop of about 27%; and for Ethereum from $3,175 to $2,240, a drop of nearly 29%, marking the second time Citigroup has lowered its crypto targets this year.

Citigroup explicitly states that weakening investor interest, Bitcoin ETF inflows turning from positive to negative, and the lack of progress in U.S. digital asset legislation are collectively dragging down crypto prospects. This weakness coincides with market funds shifting heavily toward AI-related assets. Citigroup is not alone in turning bearish; in the same week, TD Cowen also slashed MicroStrategy's target price, reflecting a collective cooling of Wall Street's optimism toward crypto.

Assumption of ETF Inflows Dropping to Zero

More notable than the target price numbers are the key assumptions behind Citigroup's adjustments. Citigroup slashes its 12-month ETF net inflow assumption from the original $10 billion all the way to zero. Bitcoin spot ETFs, once seen as the biggest buyer in this cycle, have seen net outflows of about $3.3 billion so far this year, as capital recedes.

The assumption of ETF inflows going from $10 billion to zero is the most honest part of this report, essentially admitting that the institutional buying narrative has stalled for now.

Stalled Legislation, Selling Concerns, and Capital Drawn by AI

Beyond ETFs, Citigroup also highlights two variables weighing on market sentiment. First, the slow progress of U.S. cryptocurrency legislation, with the anticipated regulatory clarity迟迟未到 (not yet arriving); second, market concerns that companies holding large Bitcoin reserves might be forced to sell their holdings under pressure, which is the "death spiral" worry repeatedly discussed regarding MicroStrategy.

Weakening investor interest, negative ETF inflows, and the lack of progress in U.S. digital asset legislation are collectively harming crypto's prospects.

While these concerns unfold, Bitcoin itself is already struggling. BTC's latest quote is around $58.8k, its weakest level since September 2024, nearly halved from its all-time high of $126k in October last year.

However, paradoxically, Citigroup's target price of $82k is still about 40% higher than the current price. In other words, Citigroup is bearish on upward momentum and institutional buying, not on Bitcoin entirely.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Citigroup lower its target prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum?

Citigroup lowered its 12-month ETF net inflow assumption from $10 billion to zero, citing weakening investor interest, Bitcoin ETF outflows turning negative, slow progress in U.S. digital asset legislation, and capital shifting toward AI-related assets. As a result, it cut BTC's target to $82k and ETH's to $2,240.

Does Citigroup's target price cut mean Bitcoin will continue to fall?

Not necessarily. The $82k target is still higher than Bitcoin's current level of around $58.8k, indicating that Citigroup is bearish on upward momentum and institutional buying, not outright bearish. This is the second downgrade by Citigroup this year, reflecting that ETF flows and legislative progress are key short-term variables.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please carefully assess risks before investing.