Is it too late to become a "crypto millionaire" with Bitcoin? Investment strategies and realistic outlooks

What Is an “Okuribito”?

In Japan, “Okuribito” describes someone whose net assets surpass 100 million yen through investments or speculation in stocks, FX, or crypto assets. This term became widely known during a period of explosive growth in the crypto market, as many investors achieved significant wealth in a short time frame.

Okuribito represents more than just hitting a financial milestone—it also stands for successful investment strategy and the importance of market timing. In the volatile crypto market, especially with Bitcoin, strategic investing and a long-term approach are essential for reaching Okuribito status.

Can New Investors Still Aim to Become Okuribito?

Simply put, “it’s definitely not too late.” However, it’s not as simple as buying a bit of Bitcoin and automatically becoming an Okuribito. What matters most is having a strategic approach and a long-term perspective.

Key Considerations

Setting Investment Amount and Timeframe

• How much you invest
• How long you hold
• What methods you use to grow your assets

Success depends on considering these factors holistically.

Realistic Growth Scenarios

For instance, investing 30,000 yen in Bitcoin each month totals 3.6 million yen over ten years. If Bitcoin’s historical growth rate repeats, that investment could grow 4–10x over a decade. These figures are realistic, supported by historical data.

The key is to avoid reacting emotionally to short-term price swings and to maintain a long-term commitment to the market’s growth. Given Bitcoin’s value proposition and market maturity, there are still solid opportunities for new investors.

Realistic Paths to Okuribito by Investment Amount

The feasibility of achieving Okuribito status depends significantly on your investment size. Here’s a breakdown of expected returns for various investment levels.

1. Can You Become Okuribito With a 100,000 Yen Investment?

Realistic Assessment

With 100,000 yen, you’d acquire about 0.007 BTC (price dependent). Even if Bitcoin’s price rises tenfold, your holdings would be worth around 1 million yen.

What This Investment Means

With 100,000 yen, the investment acts more as your “ticket” to participate in the crypto market rather than a direct route to Okuribito status. It’s best seen as an entry point for firsthand market experience and cultivating your investment sense.

However, starting with a small amount and gradually increasing your investment is a highly effective risk management method. As your understanding deepens, expanding your investment step by step can lead to much greater asset growth over time.

2. What Can You Achieve With a 1 Million Yen Investment?

Holdings and Potential Growth

With 1 million yen, you could hold about 0.071 BTC. If Bitcoin eventually reaches $1 million per BTC, your holdings would be worth about 10 million yen.

A Practical Path to Asset Growth

While this won’t make you an Okuribito directly, a 1 million yen investment could multiply several times over a mid- to long-term horizon. Over 5–10 years, it’s a meaningful starting point.

This investment size allows for relatively manageable risk from price swings and keeps psychological stress lower. For most individual investors, it’s a realistic amount for pursuing a long-term hold strategy.

3. Outlook for a 10 Million Yen Investment

The Fastest Path to Okuribito

Investing 10 million yen lets you acquire roughly 0.71 BTC. If Bitcoin exceeds $700,000, your holdings would reach 100 million yen and earn you Okuribito status.

Features of This Strategy

This is the most direct and realistic route to Okuribito. However, putting in such a large sum at once carries substantial risk.

The Importance of Risk Management

For larger investments, consider splitting your purchases across multiple entries (“dollar-cost averaging”) instead of investing all at once. This helps average out your entry price and reduces the risk of short-term volatility.

4. Investing 30,000 Yen Monthly for 10 Years

The Most Realistic and Sustainable Strategy

Investing 30,000 yen per month in Bitcoin using dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is the most practical approach for everyday investors.

Example Simulation

• Monthly investment: 30,000 yen
• Investment period: 10 years
• Total investment: 3.6 million yen
• Estimated value (if BTC hits $1 million): around 18 million yen

The Advantages of This Approach

By consistently investing an affordable monthly amount over ten years, you have a realistic chance of building assets beyond 10 million yen. DCA allows you to buy more when prices are low and less when prices are high, reducing your average purchase cost.

Reducing Psychological Burden

Regular contributions help minimize the stress of short-term volatility. By sticking to a fixed monthly plan, you avoid emotional reactions to price swings and maintain your long-term view—a major advantage of this method.

Key Price Forecasts and Their Drivers

Leading financial institutions and investors have issued bullish forecasts for Bitcoin, grounded not in wishful thinking but in analysis of market structure and supply-demand shifts.

Major Institutional and Investor Forecasts

Standard Chartered Bank

Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin will reach $200,000 within a few years, citing ongoing institutional inflows and ETF market growth as the main drivers.

ARK Invest Long-Term Forecast

ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, forecasts Bitcoin will hit $710,000 by 2030, based on the thesis that Bitcoin will solidify its “digital gold” status and expand its role in global finance.

Arthur Hayes’ Outlook

Crypto industry leader Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028, driven by fiat currency debasement and accelerating capital flows into Bitcoin.

Robert Kiyosaki’s Short-Term View

“Rich Dad, Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki predicts Bitcoin will reach $250,000 soon, citing global inflation and a weakening dollar.

Common Themes in Bullish Outlooks

Institutional Adoption

Major financial institutions and asset managers are entering the Bitcoin market in force. ETF approval allows institutions previously barred from crypto to invest in a regulated way, bringing significant new capital into the market.

Erosion of Trust in Fiat Currencies

Rising global inflation is fueling flight from fiat currencies. In emerging markets especially, more people are choosing Bitcoin to hedge against currency devaluation, boosting demand for Bitcoin as “digital gold.”

Supply Limits and Tightening Markets

Bitcoin’s maximum supply is capped at 21 million BTC, a core driver of its value. With more long-term holders, the amount circulating shrinks, causing supply-demand tightening. With rising demand and finite supply, upward price pressure persists.

Technology and Infrastructure Maturing

Bitcoin’s supporting infrastructure is advancing rapidly. Improved custody solutions, more efficient trading, and clearer regulation are making the market more accessible—and safer—for a broader range of investors.

Long-Term Holding Returns: Track Record and Outlook

Long-term holding is widely regarded as one of the soundest approaches to Bitcoin investing. Historical data clearly illustrates its effectiveness.

Detailed Analysis of Past Returns

Short- and Medium-Term Performance

Over the past five years, Bitcoin’s average annual return was about 155%—far higher than gold’s 7% in the same period. This underscores Bitcoin’s high-risk, high-return profile.

Long-Term Growth Consistency

Over ten years, Bitcoin’s average annual return was 49%. Despite short-term volatility, this long-term growth pattern suggests steady returns for patient holders.

The Four-Year Holding Rule

Most notably, holding for four years or longer has always produced positive returns. No matter the purchase timing, anyone holding for at least four years has seen overall gains—a powerful endorsement of long-term investing.

This four-year period mirrors Bitcoin’s halving cycle, highlighting the importance of experiencing a full market cycle.

Future Growth Rate Outlook

Growth Rate Normalization

Analyst Willy Woo expects Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to stabilize near 8% going forward. While more modest than past surges, this reflects a maturing market and remains attractive.

Comparison With Other Assets

An 8% return is still appealing relative to stocks (about 7% long-term average) and traditional assets like bonds and real estate. Considering Bitcoin’s scarcity and growing demand, this growth rate could persist long-term.

Transition to Store-of-Value Asset

As the market matures, Bitcoin is shifting from a “speculative asset” to a “store of value.” This means less short-term volatility, but greater reliability in long-term appreciation—creating a more reassuring environment for investors.

High-Risk Shortcuts: Leverage Trading Dangers

Some investors try to become Okuribito through leveraged or futures trading for quick gains. These methods are extremely risky and often result in significant losses.

How Leverage Works and Related Risks

Basic Leverage Principles

Leverage trading lets you control positions many times your original capital. For example, 10x leverage allows a 1 million yen deposit to control 10 million yen in trades. While profits can multiply, losses do as well.

Severe Loss Risk

With 10x leverage, a 10% adverse price move wipes out your entire investment. Bitcoin’s price can swing more than 10% in a single day, so high leverage puts your capital at constant risk of total loss.

Expert Cautions

Leverage Limits

Most investment professionals and crypto experts strongly warn against using more than 2x leverage. This reflects the hard lessons of countless investors losing everything to high-leverage bets.

The Emotional Trap

The biggest danger is that high potential profits lead to reckless decisions. After a win, investors tend to increase their leverage, only to suffer unrecoverable losses.

Disciplined Investing Is the Surest Path

Let Time Compound Your Gains

There are no shortcuts to Okuribito status. Steady, strategic investing over the long term—without leverage—can steadily grow your wealth. The historical record shows that holding for four years or longer has always produced positive returns, validating disciplined investing.

Risk Management Matters Most

The top priority in investing is not “winning big” but “not losing big.” Leverage can wipe out your portfolio in a single mistake, but spot investments limit your downside to your initial capital. Smart, steady progress is the best route to long-term wealth.

Why More Investors Are Holding Bitcoin Long-Term

Recently, more investors are holding Bitcoin long-term, reflecting market maturity and an improved regulatory environment.

Progress in Institutional Environments

ETF Approval Impact

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US and other key markets has been transformative. ETFs allow institutions and conservative investors to buy Bitcoin in a regulated structure, dramatically expanding the investor base.

More importantly, it marks Bitcoin’s shift from a “speculative asset” to a “mainstream investment.”

Institutional Capital Inflows

ETF approvals have accelerated inflows from pension funds, insurers, and hedge funds, which typically invest for the long term. Their participation supports market stability and price resilience.

Regulatory Advances in Japan

Japan has strengthened crypto regulation, allowing more individual investors to participate with confidence. The Financial Services Agency has enhanced exchange oversight, clarified taxation, and improved investor protection, further encouraging market participation.

Data Showing Growth in Long-Term Holders

Rising LTH (Long-Term Holder) Balances

Recent data shows long-term holders (LTHs) now control over 70% of all Bitcoin in circulation. This indicates a clear shift from short-term trading to long-term value preservation.

Proof of Market Maturity

This rise in long-term holders is strong evidence that Bitcoin is moving from a speculative phase to a mature market. The growing number of investors focused on long-term value supports overall market stability.

Why Long-Term Holding Is Increasing

Recognized as a Store of Value

With global inflation eroding fiat purchasing power, Bitcoin’s capped supply has attracted increasing attention as “digital gold.”

Trust in Long-Term Performance

The history of positive returns for holding Bitcoin four years or more has convinced many investors of the merits of long-term holding. The rational approach is to hold through volatility, not react to short-term moves.

Impact of Costs and Taxes

Frequent trading incurs higher fees and tax liabilities; in Japan, crypto gains are taxed as miscellaneous income, which can be steep. Long-term holding helps minimize these costs, making it even more attractive.

A Realistic Roadmap to Okuribito With Bitcoin

Building on the above analysis, here’s a practical summary of strategies and requirements for aiming at Okuribito status.

Specific Requirements for Okuribito

Calculations Based on Current Prices

If Bitcoin is around 14 million yen per BTC, you need more than a 7x price increase to reach 100 million yen. This is realistic based on current expert forecasts.

Scenario Based on ARK Invest’s Outlook

If ARK Invest’s $700,000 forecast (roughly 100 million yen) for 2030 comes true, holding 1 BTC gets you to Okuribito status. Investing roughly 10 million yen now could put this goal within reach in just a few years.

Strategy by Investment Size

Small Investments (Less Than 100,000 Yen)

This scale is best for gaining market experience rather than directly aiming for Okuribito. Use it as a learning step to build your investment knowledge and confidence.

Over time, this early experience can position you to scale up your investments as your understanding grows.

Medium Investments (Around 1 Million Yen)

At this level, long-term growth of several to tenfold is realistic. While it won’t make you an Okuribito outright, reaching 10 million yen in assets is entirely possible.

The risk-return balance here suits many salaried and individual investors.

Large Investments (Around 10 Million Yen)

Investing at this scale puts Okuribito status within reach, but requires rigorous risk management through staggered purchases and diversification.

The Most Realistic Approach: Accumulation (DCA)

For most individual investors, a long-term DCA plan—30,000 yen per month for ten years—is the most realistic, sustainable method. You can build significant assets with steady, manageable contributions while spreading out risk.

With consistency, surpassing 10 million yen is realistic in a decade; continued investing can make Okuribito status achievable.

Disciplined, Long-Term Holding Is Key

Historical Performance Shows Reliability

Bitcoin has always delivered positive returns over four-year holding periods. This track record is a strong foundation for long-term strategies. Ignore short-term volatility—staying the course is the surest path to wealth accumulation.

Avoiding the Short-Term Jackpot Mindset

Experts universally recommend focusing on long-term holding over chasing quick riches. Instead of high-risk leverage, steadily accumulating spot Bitcoin offers the highest odds of success.

Importance of Diversification

Bitcoin should be part of a broader portfolio—not a single bet. Typically, allocating 5–20% to Bitcoin and diversifying the rest across stocks, bonds, and real estate is recommended.

Regular Review and Adjustment

Even with a long-term approach, periodically review and adjust your investment as market conditions and your personal circumstances change.

Summary

Despite Bitcoin’s elevated price compared to past years, aiming to become an Okuribito remains entirely possible. In fact, market maturation, regulatory advances, and institutional inflows mean there are still significant opportunities to build wealth.

Key Success Factors

Credibility of Expert Forecasts

Bullish forecasts from major financial institutions and investors are grounded in market structure and supply-demand analysis—not mere optimism. These provide valuable encouragement for long-term investors.

Stability Through Market Maturation

With developments like ETF approval, Bitcoin is moving from a speculative asset to a mature market. While short-term volatility remains, long-term price appreciation is becoming more stable and predictable.

Long-Term Holding’s Track Record

Four-plus-year holding periods have always delivered positive returns, making long-term strategies both effective and reassuring for newcomers.

The Most Important Mindset

“How Much Can You Invest Consistently?”—Not “How Much Can You Gain?”

Success depends not on chasing the biggest gains, but on identifying the investment amount you can maintain without stress. This is the foundation for lasting success.

Risky, unsustainable investments or emotional reactions to price drops will undermine your strategy.

Be Patient, Avoid Greed, and Let Time Work for You

The journey to Okuribito takes time. Avoid high-risk trades and leverage, and don’t rush for quick wins.

Let time and compounding work in your favor—steady, long-term investing is the surest path to success.

Have a Personalized Strategy

Don’t chase others’ success stories. Build a plan tailored to your financial situation, risk appetite, and goals—whether that means steady monthly contributions or a lump-sum investment. Consistency is key.

Today Is the Best Time to Start

Regret about not starting sooner is common, but you can’t change the past. From the future’s perspective, today is always the earliest possible starting point.

Don’t wait for the perfect moment—begin with what you can and scale up as your experience grows. The first step you take today marks the real start of your Okuribito journey.

FAQ

Is It Too Late to Aim for Okuribito With Bitcoin Now?

Not at all. Even in 2026, Bitcoin remains in a growth phase, and with the right strategy, achieving Okuribito status is possible. The key is steady accumulation and a long-term mindset.

What Strategies Should Bitcoin Investors Use to Maximize Returns?

Adopt a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach to smooth market fluctuations and diversify risk. Long-term holding maximizes potential returns, and avoiding frequent trading keeps costs low.

How Much Capital Is Needed to Reach a 100 Million Yen Target If You Start Investing Now?

The required capital depends on market growth. Conservatively, several million yen may be needed, but with optimistic market performance, even several hundred thousand yen could provide an opportunity. Long-term holding is essential.

What Price Levels Could Bitcoin Reach in the Future, and How Would That Affect Returns?

Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin could reach $2.97 million in a bullish scenario, or $1.3 million in a baseline scenario by 2035. That’s a 28.3% annualized compound growth rate, which could drive substantial returns.

What Are the Main Risks in Bitcoin Investing and How Can They Be Managed?

Key risks are price volatility, quantum computing threats, and market manipulation. Manage them by diversifying, holding long-term, and monitoring the market regularly.

Is Dollar-Cost Averaging or Lump-Sum Investment Better for Bitcoin?

DCA reduces volatility risk and suits long-term investors. Lump-sum investment can yield higher short-term gains but depends heavily on timing. Choose based on your risk tolerance.

How Do Bitcoin’s Returns and Risks Compare With Other Crypto Assets or Traditional Investments?

Bitcoin offers high return potential alongside higher volatility and risk compared to both other crypto assets and traditional investments. By 2026, institutional adoption is improving stability, but annual fluctuations of several dozen percent remain possible. Bitcoin provides portfolio diversification and growth opportunities but requires diligent security management and market knowledge.

What’s the Outlook for Bitcoin in 2024 and Beyond? Any Advice for New Investors?

Following the 2024 halving and ETF approvals, experts anticipate a strong market into 2025, with forecasts as high as $250,000 for Bitcoin. New investors should focus on long-term holding and consider opportunities in asset tokenization and real-world asset (RWA) markets.