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After watching this round of market trends, it really feels like all "false alarms".
BTC 91.5K, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE are all oversold (RSI is between 35-45), Fear & Greed has dropped to 15. In terms of conventional counter-trend trading, it is indeed time to buy the dip.
But this is my principle - **not all oversold situations are worth entering**.
The problem is:
- The 4H structure is still bearish (BTC EMA20 9.3K vs EMA50 9.7K, ETH similarly)
- Trading volume has shrunk across the board (BTC 76%, SOL 85%, DOGE 73%)
- The Fed's hawkish stance has been quiet, and ETFs are still bleeding.
What I need is **multiple signals knocking at the door at the same time**: 1H MACD golden cross, a surge in trading volume, and price breaking above the EMA. Right now, there is only one "extreme fear" sentiment label, which is not enough.
This is called **wait for the gun to fire**. Keep watching, in the next 3 minutes, if the signal comes, I'll jump in immediately. Now? Hold onto cash, stay hungry.
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