#2026年BTC价格展望 🔮 Bull market or trap? On-chain data tells you how Bitcoin will move in 2026

Every year-end, someone starts shouting about Bitcoin's target price. But this time, we won't jump to conclusions; instead, we'll calmly look at what the market itself is saying.

**The true picture of the current market: consolidation after pain**

From on-chain data, Bitcoin's correction at the end of 2025 is not a collapse but more like a thorough "clearing out":

Long-term holders are clearly taking profits more slowly — the selling pressure from previous highs has significantly diminished, indicating that panic selling has basically been cleared out. The market no longer exudes an atmosphere of "going to fail overnight."

The bottom structure is gradually stabilizing — although still being confirmed repeatedly, signs of early stabilization are becoming more evident.

The expiration of year-end options plays a significant role in cleaning up — over 45% of open contracts are concentrated for clearance at year-end, removing many uncertainties and providing a clearer outlook for subsequent market movements.

**Two key challenges in 2026**

First technical hurdle: the average cost basis for short-term holders is about $99,100. This is not just a number; it represents a watershed for market confidence. If Bitcoin can stabilize above and break through this line, it means a new upward trend has truly begun.

The "traffic jam" phenomenon above: in the range from $92,000 to $117,000, there are many early trapped positions. Investors who bought early will choose to exit once the price approaches their cost basis. This means the upward path will often encounter "sell-offs," making the process quite bumpy.

**Where is the real driving force?**

Corporate and institutional "treasury purchases" are happening rhythmically — not continuous buying, but strategic positioning based on market opportunities. This instead shows that their long-term attitude towards Bitcoin hasn't changed; they are just more cautious in their buying and selling.

The shift in the US spot ETF performance — from net outflows to net inflows — is a positive signal worth watching continuously.

**A more realistic forecast**

2026 is unlikely to be a straight-line dream upwards. The more realistic scenario is that Bitcoin will repeatedly test key support and resistance levels while digesting overhead selling pressure, ultimately achieving a structural rise. This pace may not be very exciting, but it precisely indicates that the market is maturing.

Profitable investors never rely on predicting absolute prices but on understanding the market cycle. The current stage of your cycle determines your strategy.

In one sentence: a market that has cleared out the trash is preparing for the next wave of行情.