New York "Egg Delivery" Battle: Polymarket Opens Shop, Kalshi Issues Coupons—What Are the Big Players Planning?

Title: “Polymarket Opens in New York, Kalshi Gives Away $50 Grocery Vouchers, Prediction Markets Also Starting to Distribute Eggs?”

Author: Wenser

Source: From Polymarket.

To gain more attention ahead of the “American Spring Festival” Super Bowl, the two major platforms have recently started their “ground promotion performances”—Kalshi distributing $50 worth of free food benefits at a supermarket in New York; Polymarket is even more aggressive, launching its “First Free Grocery Store in New York,” which has been in preparation for several months and is scheduled to open officially on February 12. In the race for attention and user base, the billion-dollar valuation prediction market giants have chosen the most traditional but effective “offline ground promotion” route.

In response to this, we also promptly contacted our colleague Connie in New York, who provided updates on “Kalshi and Polymarket offline ground promotions” and real information such as “how much can $50 buy in New York” for our readers.

When prediction market giants play with ground promotions: Kalshi does pop-up events, Polymarket “opens a store with one click”

As one of the top metropolitan areas in the U.S., New York has become a key battleground and focal point for Kalshi and Polymarket.

Amid rising living costs across New York and even nationwide, Kalshi and Polymarket have both rolled out big moves—

On February 3, Kalshi distributed $50 worth of free food to some users【limited time】at the Westfield Market on 84th Street in Manhattan, aiming to attract more users to participate in platform-based predictions on various real-world events.

Based on nearby “wire pole ads,” “inside supermarket KT boards,” and other promotional materials, Kalshi’s offline ground promotion appears more like an impromptu “pop-up event”—collaborating with local supermarkets to quickly deploy some offline materials, using the “free $50 food giveaway” as bait to attract people to queue up and watch in person. Connie confirmed this as well.

Furthermore, it’s clear that through this pop-up event, Kalshi hopes to encourage more people to join predictions on everyday, low-threshold, easy-to-understand issues like “Will oil prices in New York City rise above $3.30 this year?” to achieve brand marketing, user acquisition, and engagement goals.

Compared to Kalshi’s somewhat rough and highly commercialized approach, Polymarket’s preparations are undoubtedly more thorough.

On February 3, slightly earlier than Kalshi’s official announcement, Polymarket issued a statement saying that after months of careful planning, it plans to open “New York’s first free grocery store” through a physical rental store on February 12 (Eastern Time). Additionally, Polymarket donated $1 million to the New York City Food Bank to help address the region’s “hunger problem.”

Polymarket also released photos of vegetables like tomatoes and eggplants being handed out offline, evoking memories of the early days of internet platform ground promotions in China—full of “download the app and get eggs,” “first recharge and receive a new user gift pack” vibes.

It’s worth noting that Polymarket emphasized that “Polymarket’s offline store has sufficient stock and no purchase is necessary,” and at the end of the post, called on everyone to donate to the NYC Food Bank, encouraging people to take real action to address the high food costs and living expenses causing “hunger.”

Seeing this, I couldn’t help but reflect—

Fake crypto project ground promotions: holding offline conferences, hosting seafood banquets, promoting fake concept tokens;

Real crypto project ground promotions: giving away vegetables and eggs, opening offline stores to distribute free food, doing charity and public welfare, calling for donations and love.

Regarding the actual purchasing power of the “egg giveaway” activities by Kalshi and Polymarket, we also had a detailed discussion with Connie.

$50 in New York City: what can it buy?

According to Connie, $50 in New York City’s real purchasing power is quite substantial.

“Buying a 0.5-pound (about 0.45 jin) piece of beef at a local supermarket in NYC costs around $18. With $50, you can buy about 1.5 pounds of beef,” enough for a single adult’s three meals a day. In comparison, the price of beef in China is only about 30 yuan per jin, which is roughly 1/8 of the cost in New York.

Converted to the well-known “McDonald’s Index,” the real purchasing power of $50 is also impressive—an 800-1000 kcal cheeseburger meal costs about $10.89, so $50 can buy about 5 meals; a double-layer burger with 580 kcal costs around $7.20. Of course, in China, this price is considered “sky-high”—the same burger meal costs only about 25-40 yuan, which is roughly half the cost of the same food in New York.

In other words, saving a little on expenses, $50 can nearly cover about two days of eating costs for an average person in NYC (assuming 5-6 meals). Connie also revealed that Kalshi’s event attracted many Americans to queue up for “free food,” even saying “Americans are more enthusiastic about queuing for things than Chinese.” Polymarket’s “offline free grocery store” is also expected to attract a large number of people to line up and participate. Based on the current information released by Kalshi and Polymarket, the related activities of these two platforms likely cost at least $50,000 to $100,000 or more.

And with such significant manpower and resources invested, aside from charity and acts of kindness, Kalshi and Polymarket are also playing their own “little tricks.”

The business behind prediction market “egg giveaways”: influencing regulatory oversight through political issues

Both Kalshi and Polymarket’s food donation activities were carried out independently, without coordination or communication with the New York City government.

However, their public statements and purposes are very similar to the policies repeatedly emphasized by New York’s newly elected Mayor Zohran Mamdani during his campaign—who proposed “opening public grocery stores in all five boroughs of NYC to lower food prices.” Mamdani pointed out that city-operated grocery stores could reduce rent and operating costs through non-profit models and public land use. This plan is still in the pilot stage, with no final implementation timetable.

Meanwhile, as one of the key states in the U.S., New York’s legislators are actively drafting new laws targeting the emerging prediction market industry. The “ORACLE Act” aims to restrict or prohibit New York residents from betting on certain prediction market events and impose stricter regulations on event-based prediction markets; another bill requires prediction market operators to obtain a state-issued license before operating.

It’s clear that some lawmakers still have concerns about prediction markets, viewing them as akin to unregulated gambling or more susceptible to insider manipulation.

In light of this, although NYC’s mayor does not have direct jurisdiction over prediction market regulation (note: regulation of prediction market platforms falls under state and federal authorities), Kalshi and Polymarket’s actions may also be a way to indirectly seek a more favorable regulatory environment.

Finally, regardless of how these “egg giveaways” ultimately influence the industry, we must admit that Chinese internet platforms’ promotional models may be at least 5-10 years ahead of the Western world.