#比特币反弹

The Bitcoin market is currently a high-stakes arena, and the $71,000 level is acting as the ultimate "line in the sand." With macro data looming, we’re seeing a classic battle between long-term conviction and short-term nerves.

Here is a breakdown of the current landscape:

1️⃣ Reclaiming $71,000 is a psychologically vital victory, but the technicals suggest we aren't out of the woods just yet.

Reclaiming this level after the recent dip to nearly $60,000 shows significant "buy the dip" appetite. If BTC can hold $71k as support through mid-week, the next major resistance sits around the $72,000–$74,000 range.

The daily trend remains cautious unless BTC can clear the $81,000 mark to confirm a full trend reversal. A failure to hold $70k could easily spark a retest of the lower $60s.
2️⃣ HODL vs. Swing The "correct" move depends entirely on your risk tolerance, but the market's current volatility favors a hybrid approach:

If your horizon is 2027 and beyond, the current noise is just that—noise. Institutional interest remains high, and the recent government shutdown-induced data delays have only temporarily obscured the long-term bullish fundamental picture.

This is a prime environment for "locking in." With $71k-$72k acting as a stiff ceiling, taking partial profits here allows you to re-enter if a "second pullback" occurs during the heavy data releases later this week.
3️⃣ Policy Impact & Planning

This week is packed with "market movers." Here’s how to navigate them:

Japan Election Result Feb 9

Positive. PM Takaichi's landslide victory removed political ambiguity, boosting global risk-on sentiment and the Nikkei, which helps BTC.

Non-Farm Payrolls Feb 11

High Volatility. Delayed due to the gov shutdown. If jobs are stronger than the 70k forecast, the dollar may spike, potentially Pressuring BTC.

US-Iran Negotiations Ongoing

Geopolitical Wildcard. Any sign of "cooling" usually hurts safe havens like Gold but can boost "risk assets" like Bitcoin.

CPI Inflation Data Feb 13 The

Big One. High inflation might delay Fed rate cuts, which is generally bearish for BTC in the short term.
I'm watching the US Dollar Index: Bitcoin generally moves inversely to the dollar. If the CPI/TFP data causes the dollar to rise, I expect BTC to be affected as well.

Setting my orders: Considering the "Super Wednesday" (TFP) and "Heavy Friday" (CPI) calendar, volatility will be at its peak. I'm protecting my downside risk near the $68,500 support level.
‍$BTC