📊 March 4 BTC Technical Analysis (as of 18:00)

Current Price: Around $67,500, wide fluctuations, bulls and bears are at a stalemate

1. Key Price Levels (Intraday)

- Resistance Levels: 68,000 → 68,500 → 69,000 (Strong Resistance)
- Support Levels: 66,000 → 65,000 → 63,000 (Strong Support)

2. Cycle Structure

- Daily Chart: End of the downtrend channel, weak rebound consolidation; long-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, medium-term trend is bearish
- 4-Hour Chart: MACD bearish momentum continues, leaning towards a pullback; double top neckline at 68,500–69,000 with obvious resistance
- 1-Hour Chart: Triangle convergence / wedge consolidation, waiting for a breakout; 5/10-day moving averages are converged, bulls and bears are balanced

3. Indicators and Volume

- MACD: Bullish crossover below zero on the daily chart but price has not made a new high, indicating a technical rebound correction, not a trend reversal
- Volume: Rebound with low volume, decline with increasing volume, lacking new funds, rebound sustainability is weak
- Sentiment: Extreme panic in the fear index, ETF funds are net outflowing, institutions are on the sidelines

4. Intraday Strategy (For reference only, not investment advice)

- Primarily short: Light short positions on rebounds to 68,500–69,000, stop loss at 69,200, target 67,000 → 66,000
- Supplementary long: Light long positions on pullbacks to 65,000–66,000, stop loss at 64,800, target 67,500 → 68,000
- Breakout strategies:
- Volume breakout above 69,000 → Exit short positions, observe or lightly go long
- Valid break below 65,000 → Accelerate downward to below 63,000

5. Market Outlook (1–2 weeks)

- Most likely: Range-bound between 65,000–70,000, waiting for halving and Federal Reserve decision to settle
- Break above 70,000 → Target 75,000
- Break below 65,000 → Target 63,000 → 61,000