The market daily reports and analysis reports around March 3, 2026, and the surrounding period, can be summarized with the following main reasons for Bitcoin's rise (or rebound) in March:

1. Geopolitical risk aversion demand (core driver)

Escalation of Middle East tensions: Confirmation of the death of the Iranian leader and the escalation of military actions between the US, Israel, and Iran triggered intense volatility and risk aversion in global markets.

Decentralized safe haven channels: Amid obstacles to cross-border transfers in traditional banking systems, Bitcoin is viewed as an efficient alternative payment system and safe haven asset. Especially in crypto-friendly regions like the UAE and Dubai, the demand for alternative payment systems supported the price rebound.

Inflation hedge properties: Rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns, prompting investors to hold "hard assets" that hedge against inflation. Bitcoin moved in tandem with gold and silver, rising together.

2. Continuous inflow of institutional funds (ETF effect)

Spot ETF net inflows: Despite some market sentiment instability, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded massive net inflows (up to $1 billion in a single day, with significant inflows during the week). Purchases by large asset managers like BlackRock and Grayscale provided stable support for the market.

Restoration of institutional confidence: Continuous ETF inflows from institutional funds demonstrated long-term confidence in crypto assets, which is considered a key driver for breaking through major resistance levels.

3. Supply and demand fundamentals and halving cycle logic

Supply tightening: The supply shock effects following the 2024 halving further manifested in 2026. Reduced miner rewards built a scarcity moat.

On-chain data positives: Surge in Ethereum staking demand led to a tightening of circulating supply, while a large amount of Bitcoin moved out of exchanges into long-term lock-up contracts, easing market selling pressure.

Cycle bottoming out: Analysts believe 2026, as an adjustment year in the cycle, has seen its downward pressure fully released. The price stabilizing near $68,000 marks the end of the bear market gloom, consistent with the historical pattern of "three years of gains followed by one year of correction."

4. Market structure and trading factors

Short squeeze: Previously, perpetual contract markets had excessive short positions. As prices rose, this triggered large-scale short liquidations (total liquidations exceeding $380 million), which accelerated the price increase.

Technical indicator recovery: BTC successfully reclaimed the 20-day moving average, Bollinger Bands narrowed indicating a breakout, and indicators like RSI showed bullish divergence, signaling exhaustion of selling pressure and a bullish reversal.

Resilience against negative news: Despite uncertainties in tariffs and tense geopolitical situations, BTC did not break below key support levels (such as $62,500–$63,000). This resilience indicates diminishing downward momentum.

5. Macro policy expectations

Federal Reserve policy shift expectations: Market expectations of a pause or cut in interest rate hikes by the Fed increased, with the US dollar index remaining stable, benefiting risk assets.

US manufacturing PMI recovery: The US manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory, demonstrating economic resilience and driving a synchronized rebound in risk assets.

Improved regulatory environment: The Trump administration focused on inflation issues and promised to create a "cryptocurrency capital," while the SEC's more friendly stance and clearer regulations alleviated some institutional concerns.

The March rally in Bitcoin was the result of a combination of risk-averse buying driven by geopolitical crises, continuous ETF inflows from institutional investors, supply tightening after the halving, and technical short squeeze triggers. The market generally views this as a structural rebound transitioning from a "sentiment bottom" to a "price bottom."#加密市场上涨 #美伊局势影响 #原油价格飙升 $BTC $ETH $SOL