#比特币创下近一月内新高

In the gap between certainty and uncertainty: My thoughts on 74k Bitcoin

Brothers at Gate Square, good evening.

Waking up in the early morning and casually checking the market, the number $74,050 suddenly felt both unfamiliar and familiar. Bitcoin hit a nearly one-month high, and the total market capitalization returned to $2.53 trillion — this long-missed “red (upward)” actually feels a bit unsettling. White House submitted Wosh’s nomination, the Senate didn’t block the Iran sanctions, U.S. stocks rebounded, and institutions are scooping up. This series of news acts like a strong shot of adrenaline, pulling the market out of the gloom at the start of the week.

Amid the celebration, regarding the two hot topics this period, I want to share my honest thoughts.

1. Kevin Wosh = Rate Cut? It’s Not That Simple

Regarding the first question: Does Wosh’s nomination mean expectations for a rate cut are rising?

Many brothers’ first reaction to “Trump’s nomination” + “new chairman” is “massive liquidity coming,” so they rush in. But after reading in-depth analyses from Xinhua News and FX168, I think things are far from so linear.

First, Wosh’s background isn’t purely “dovish.” Looking back at his resume, around the financial crisis, he was actually more hawkish, a board member who valued the Fed’s boundaries. His current market betting on a rate cut is more because he’s associated with “Trump’s person,” not necessarily his own policy stance.

Second, even if he wants to cut, he might not be able to. Currently, the Fed faces two huge “obstacles”:

· Oil price shocks from Iran war: War pushes energy prices higher, and if inflation rebounds because of it, no matter who’s sitting as chair, they wouldn’t dare pour fuel on the fire.
· Uncertainty in tariff policies: The Supreme Court has pushed back some tariffs, but a new policy framework isn’t formed yet. This uncertainty is a blow to corporate investment and also a reason for the Fed to “wait and see” rather than “act.”

So my conclusion is: Wosh’s nomination indeed ignited the imagination of “future rate cuts,” but this is more emotional embellishment than substantial support. In the short term, the main drivers of the price are “macroeconomic relief” (geopolitical tensions not worsening further) and “institutional big money buying” (BlackRock scooped another $1.2 billion in recent days).

2. At this critical juncture, my “cautiously optimistic” approach

Regarding the second question: Hold coins and wait for a rise, or follow the trend and chase longs, or reverse and prepare for a correction?

This has been a dilemma for me lately. Looking at the 74,000 K-line, it’s hard not to want to chase longs, especially seeing the probability of reaching 80,000 from March rising to 46% on Polymarket. But my personal strategy is: no empty positions, no leverage, keep some holdings for swing trading, and hold the core position to “wait for a rise.”

My reasoning is simple: currently, it’s a resonance of cyclical and macro perspectives, but the rhythm must be viewed separately:

· Bullish logic (hard support): The halving cycle is still ongoing (the main bull run after 2024 halving usually lags 12-18 months), institutions continue to allocate via ETFs (BlackRock isn’t here for charity; they’re here to grab market share), plus long-term on-chain holders have high lock-up ratios, so selling pressure is indeed light. All these tell me that jumping off now might cause missing the entire Year of the Horse bull market.
· Short-term concerns (soft spots): The 74,000-75,000 range is a dense trading zone historically, also where many trapped positions last year are unwinding. Plus, CPI on March 12 and FOMC meeting on March 19 are imminent. If the data isn’t good, one piece of news could turn leveraged traders into “fuel.” Chasing high at this position isn’t very risk-reward friendly.

So, my specific plan is:

1. Core position (60%): Keep lying flat. This part of the holdings is accumulated since late 2025, with an average cost around 60,000. Unless Bitcoin drops below the daily MA120 (currently around 68,000), I won’t move. I’m not looking at 74,000 now, but at 80,000 or even 100,000 in the second half of the year.
2. Tactical position (40%): Used to respond to “oscillating new highs + correction shakeouts.”
· If tonight continues to push higher (say to 75,000-76,000): I’ll cut half of this tactical position to lock in profits. Not to be bearish, but to keep my mindset better and avoid regret if profits pull back.
· If it pulls back (say to 71,000-72,000): I’ll buy back the reduced position. As long as it doesn’t fall below the psychological 70,000, the upward structure remains intact.

In summary: I won’t be the one to get off before dawn, but I also want to avoid the last darkness before dawn. In a bull market, missing out is worse than being trapped. Being trapped can wait; chasing high and getting cut is easier to regret.

2026 is the Year of the Horse. The crypto saying “a horse doesn’t get fat without night grass,” but that night grass must be eaten safely. Wishing everyone at Gate Square can earn Beta profits and protect Alpha positions. Brothers who like this, make money!