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1. Dismissing what you think you understand is not risk mitigation; true risk stems from blind spots in your knowledge. Managing unpredictable unknowns is the real form of risk mitigation (the former is like animals foraging in the wild). The difference between these two is as vast as a chasm, and naturally leads to completely opposite outcomes.
2. When you begin automatically lowering your return requirements, investment maturity begins. Small capital with large profits yields modest gains; large capital with small profits yields substantial gains. Lowering return requirements maintains stability, which inevitably involves "foolish moves" and "foolish persistence." Maintaining stability preserves long-termism. Nobody wants to get rich slowly, but impatient people will quickly return to poverty. Lowering returns + pursuing stability + pursuing long-term compounding reflects high awareness, big-picture thinking, and great wisdom appearing as foolishness.
3. Iran being attacked is certainly bearish, and whether it quickly moves toward peace and stability remains unknown, but what is certain is that after this incident, China has seen that America's exterior is strong but interior is hollow—a long-term positive, benefiting the recovery of [ww]. In investment strategy, we cannot flee at short-term headwinds and forget long-term positives. "One yin, one yang make the way"—how to balance the principal contradiction and grasp the key point matters greatly. Running at bearish signals and chasing at bullish signals, trying to catch both ends, results in being counterattacked. Better to firmly grasp the most important side; though results come slowly, it's stable, enduring, and fearless of risk.
4. Quantitative trading is like eunuchs in imperial courts—it develops rapidly when needed, but once the system becomes bloated and turns into an uncontrollable money-devouring beast, it will inevitably be hunted down. Currently, the market's normal capacity for quantitative funds is in the hundreds of billions, but quantitative institutions with scales exceeding hundreds of billions have appeared, meaning the overall scale is tens of trillions, accounting for increasingly larger daily trading volumes, so much so that several retail trading operations lost money this week like they surrendered. This is a signal. Eventually, quantitative trading will be cleaned up. Currently, average P/E ratios of mid-cap stocks exceed 100—everyone must be careful. Regarding quantitative trading, you can learn its methodology but must trust wisely, not blindly.
5. On the American side, mega institutions like Blue Cat Owl, BlackRock, and Blackstone have created private credit funds that may ultimately explode with consequences reaching global high-tech sectors. First, tech has led gains for long; second, these institutions are major shareholders in mainstream American tech stocks—without money, they must inevitably reduce holdings. Tech stocks have rapid transmission effects, so I suggest avoiding them.
6. US debt has exceeded 39 trillion dollars, which is troubling short-term. China still holds over 600 billion in US debt; if concentrated selling occurs, it becomes that magical "killer" straw. US debt cannot be saved; the dollar cannot be saved either. Attacking Iran merely temporarily blocked dollar depreciation; long-term, it will still depreciate significantly. So don't be seduced by high interest rates on dollars and Hong Kong dollars.
7. In the second year of World War II, stock markets rebounded sharply; in 1929 when the global economic crisis erupted, there was a major rebound the next year. Crisis is opportunity; there's no need for excessive caution. Simply believe in China, believe in value, and maintain your own unbreakable strategy—that's sufficient for success!
PS: We believe therefore we see, not see therefore we believe! That's all!