The war has been going on for four weeks.

Gold just had its worst week since 1983.
BTC is also falling. The only "safe haven asset" going up is oil.

Trump posted on Truth Social last night, giving Iran a 48-hour ultimatum: reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or I'll bomb your power plants, starting with the biggest one.

Iran responded: If you dare bomb the power plants, I'll completely close the strait until the power plants are rebuilt. Direct quote from Iran's Revolutionary Guards—completely sealed.

BTC dropped from around 71,000 to 69,141, with 463 million in liquidations in 24 hours. But compared to the bigger picture, this decline is nothing.

Brent crude is now at @E1@112 per barrel, roughly @E2@72 at the start of the year. Up @E3@55% over four weeks. U.S. gas prices jumped @E4@1 per gallon in a month.

Iraq just declared force majeure on oil production, slashing output from @E5@3.3 million barrels per day to @E6@900,000 barrels. Goldman Sachs says oil could hit @E7@130.

Gold? The textbook ultimate safe-haven asset—down over @E8@10% this week, worst single week since @E9@1983. From a January high of @E10@5,500 down to @E11@4,490 now, a drop of roughly @E12@18%, approaching a technical bear market.

The reason is pretty counterintuitive: oil spike pushes up inflation expectations, the Fed signals it might only cut rates once this year, or not at all. Higher rates for longer means gold as a zero-yield asset gets hammered.

BTC hasn't fared much better. Now it has @E13@88% correlation with the S&P @E14@500, and @E15@92% with gold. Everyone knows by now—it's no longer an independent asset, just a high-beta play that follows macro trends.

So here's the situation:
--War is escalating, safe-haven assets are falling
--Gold falls, BTC falls, stocks fall
--The only thing rising is crude oil

Textbooks say war is bullish for safe havens. But this @E16@2026 war wrote a completely different script: there are no safe-haven assets, only inflation assets.

In previous wars, capital flows were clear: stocks down, gold up, bonds up.
But not this time. This war is hitting the global energy supply chain directly. The Strait of Hormuz carries @E17@20% of global oil. The war itself creates inflation, inflation forces central banks to maintain high rates, and high rates hammer all assets in return.

Gold can't withstand high rates. BTC can't withstand liquidity tightening. Stocks can't withstand recession expectations. The only beneficiary is oil itself.

Monday evening. If Iran doesn't open the strait and Trump really goes through with it, oil could head toward @E18@130 or higher.

By then, the hot topics on social media and people's concerns might not be how low BTC dropped, but how much it costs to fill up a tank of gas.