【Middle East Conflict Enters "Binary Critical Point," Market Torn Between TACO and Stagflation】

On March 23rd, following Donald Trump's "ultimatum" to Iran, global markets entered a highly uncertain state. On one hand, Trump suddenly announced a "5-day delay in military strikes," and markets rapidly traded the "TACO logic" (his customary brinkmanship followed by retreat); on the other hand, Wall Street institutions broadly believe that genuine risk clearing has not yet been completed.

The core contradiction is currently very clear:
Short-term betting on "de-escalation," long-term guarding against "spiraling out of control."

As the Strait of Hormuz approaches a "quasi-lockdown," approximately 20% of global energy transportation faces disruption, oil prices maintain elevated levels, and stagflation expectations are rapidly heating up. Markets are no longer single-direction trading, but have entered a stage "dominated by macro shocks"—simultaneous equity and bond selloffs, gold losing effectiveness, dollar strengthening, risk assets facing comprehensive pressure.

What's worth noting is that market structure has undergone subtle changes this round:
The previously most resilient and most consensus "AI super leader stocks" are gradually evolving into potential "liquidity exits."

Goldman Sachs' core judgment is straightforward:
When markets enter risk-off phases, funds don't sell the weakest first, but rather sell "the most liquid, highest unrealized gains, most crowded positions" assets. And AI leaders happen to satisfy all three conditions.

What does this mean?

It means market logic is switching from "AI narrative-driven bull market" to "macro constraints suppressing valuations."

If oil prices remain elevated long-term:
- Discount rates rise (rate expectations lift)
- Profit expectations decline (cost impacts)
- Leveraged funds are forced to deleverage
Then high-valuation tech stocks will face "triple kill pressure."

This is also why current bounces look more like "trading rallies" rather than trend reversals.

From a broader macro perspective, markets are in an extremely typical "binary game zone":
If conflict de-escalates → risk assets rapidly recover
If conflict escalates → stagflation trade fully dominates

But the problem is—nobody dares to All-in either side prematurely.

【Guru's Perspective】

This market move is essentially not a "rise-fall question," but a "pricing anchor disappearing."

Markets anchored on AI narrative for the past year, but now anchor on geopolitics + energy + inflation.

Once the anchor shifts, the most dangerous thing isn't decline, but—consensus collapse.

Short-term you can trade the "TACO bounce," but don't turn trading into faith.

True bottoms never come from prices falling out, but from "nobody wants to sell anymore."

We're not at that stage yet. $ETH $XAUT