April rate hike probability 87.6%, but markets are actually more panicked: the real risk is this…

Surface data looks good: 👉 April rate hike probability as high as 87.6%
Many people breathed a sigh of relief: "A bullish catalyst is coming."
But markets haven't completely relaxed. Why?
Because of one term: 👉 "unexpected action"
In other words—— 👉 black swan
The current rate path is actually quite delicate:
✔ No rate hike → bullish for risk assets ✔ But inflation hasn't been fully resolved ✔ Policy could reverse at any time
This creates a situation: 👉 Markets don't dare go all in.
What you'll see: ✔ Rally a bit and someone sells ✔ Dip a bit and someone buys
Forming a kind of "tug-of-war market."
One sentence summary: 👉 Uncertainty is more terrifying than rate hikes.

💬Comment section interaction: 👉 Do you think the Fed might suddenly raise rates? 👉 If policy reverses, would your first instinct be to sell or add positions? 👉 What's the biggest risk in markets right now? #创作者冲榜